The Trump administration is pointing to the woes of the nation’s aviation system to ratchet up pressure on Democrats as the government shutdown enters its second month and the sides remain at loggerheads.

An estimated 700,000 federal workers are considered essential and must work without pay while the government is closed. Even though air traffic controllers make up less than 2 percent of that group, their plight has received extra attention.

Vice President JD Vance warned Thursday that the flight disruptions rippling throughout the system could worsen if stressed-out controllers and other key frontline aviation workers stop reporting for work.

Controllers missed their first paycheck this past week.

“Everybody here is very worried that we’re going to see more delays, more stresses on the people who are actually making the aviation system run and more problems for both the consumers, but also the great workers who actually make this incredible shining jewel of the American economy actually work,” Vance said.

So far, however, the impact of the shutdown has been relatively muted. Earlier in the week, at a news conference at LaGuardia Airport, Transportation Secretary Sean P. Duffy conceded there have been fewer disruptions than during the last government shutdown. But he argued that the aviation system remains fragile, short 3,000 controllers for what it needs.

Data from Cirium, an aviation analytics company, found that performance during the first few weeks of the shutdown was average to above average, with little change at major U.S. airports. When disruptions did occur, they were more likely tied to weather in the Northeast, the company said.

Meanwhile, the number of flight disruptions linked to understaffing has varied widely. For example, on Oct. 7, about 53 percent of delays were linked to staffing shortages, but the next day, that number dropped to only 4 percent, according to data from the Federal Aviation Administration. Before the shutdown, Duffy said, an average 5 percent of delays were caused by staffing issues.

More generally, airlines have been fortunate in that the shutdown occurred during a traditionally slow period for airlines and that October weather has been relatively mild, analysts say.

“This is a time when airlines normally reduce the number of flights they operate due to the lower seasonal demand,” said Henry Harteveldt, an aviation analyst and president of Atmosphere Research Group. In recent earnings calls, several airlines said they planned to reduce their fall and winter flying to keep supply tighter and avoid having to cut prices, he added.

Airlines have also likely done contingency planning given this isn’t the first time they’ve had a government shutdown, he said.

Another factor is that airlines have invested in technology and taken lessons learned during the pandemic to strengthen their operations and improve their resilience, said Chris Sununu, CEO of the airline trade group Airlines for America. He also credited the FAA with putting strategies in place to adapt more quickly to disruptions.

Still, staffing shortages at key airports this past week, including one at Los Angeles International over the weekend and several more at Washington’s Reagan National and Chicago’s O’Hare International, have made headlines. And there are some indications the system might be growing increasingly strained.

Thursday was the first indication of a broader, systemwide slowdown, according to Cirium. Data showed an uptick in cancellations at the three major New York-area airports as well as Boston’s Logan International. Disruptions at major airports can quickly cascade through the broader aviation system.

Missed paychecks

Duffy and other administration officials have said the shutdown will have effects beyond whether Americans can make it to their destinations on time.

According to an estimate released by the Congressional Budget Office this past week, the U.S. economy stands to lose between $7 billion and $14 billion because of the shutdown as federal workers miss paychecks and programs that provide food benefits to low-income Americans might be disrupted.

“Many of our controllers can make it without this first paycheck,” Duffy said at the LaGuardia Airport event. “They’ve been in the job for 10, 15, 20 years. … But we have a lot of new controllers who are still in training, that aren’t at a high level in income. And they can’t handle what’s happening to them today.”

“If they don’t have the right staffing levels or if there’s distractions in towers, [air traffic controllers] will slow down the landings and departures in different airports across the country,” he added. Duffy said more delays or even cancellations could result.

Also at risk is Duffy’s high-profile effort to recruit and train more air traffic controllers — a critical part of the administration’s effort to modernize the national airspace system. While the FAA has been able to continue training new controllers at its academy in Oklahoma City (which was shuttered during the previous government shutdown), Duffy warned this past week that funding to do so could run out soon — and that some trainees may rethink their decision to become controllers.

“Some of our young controllers in the academy and some who have been given spots in the next class of the academy are bailing,” Duffy said. “We’re seeing that real consequence right now.”

“It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to understand that there’s a connection between workers without a paycheck and their morale,” said Robert Puentes, a vice president at the Brookings Institution and former president of the Eno Center for Transportation.

Controllers in other countries don’t have to grapple with the issues their American counterparts have because many governments rely on private-sector or nonprofit partners for that function, he said. But in the U.S., “these are actually federal workers who get caught up in the political football that is a government shutdown.”

Emily Davies contributed to this report.