Weather forecasting data suggests temperatures in Europe could hit 50C for the first time ever this month as Spain, Portugal and France face their hottest days in history
12:16, 20 Jul 2026
Heatwaves have ravaged Europe already this year, and weather models suggest the worst may be still to come before the end of this month.
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The UK is coming out of its third heatwave of the year, but temperatures are expected to rise again soon and bring a fourth scorching spell. And a similar pattern appears to be developing on the continent.
GFS weather model data suggests tourists heading to parts of Portugal, Spain and France this month should be prepared to experience some never-before-seen temperatures, as each country could record its warmest ever day.
The maps show temperatures in southern parts of Portugal could reach a staggering 50C on July 28 - which would be the hottest temperature ever recorded in Europe. The current European temperature record is 48.8C, registered near the city of Syracuse in Sicily on August 11, 2021.
The hottest temperature ever recorded in Portugal is currently 47.4C, which came on August 1, 2003 in Amareleja, a town in the region of Alentejo. Although coastal regions where most tourists will be heading in Portugal are set to be cooler, with possible 45C highs along the southern Atlantic coast - inland areas in the south could surpass 48C quite widely.
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Spain could also see its record temperature on July 28, with south-western areas potentially reaching 49C - including the tourist hotspot of Seville. The highest temperature ever recorded in Spain is 47.6C, which came on August 14, 2021 in La Rambla, Córdoba.
France’s current highest temperature ever recorded is 46C, which came in Verargues on June 28, 2019. The GFS model suggests several areas in the south and south-west could surpass this on July 31 with potential 47C highs just inland from the Atlantic coast, including in Bordeaux.
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Temperature anomaly maps for the end of July show huge swathes of Portugal, France, Spain and Italy shaded in dark red and black. This indicates where temperatures are expected to rise well above the seasonal average.
Evacuations were ordered in central and north-eastern Spain over the weekend following major wildfires, one in the province of Guadalajara and another near Zaragoza. This follows devastating wildfires which ripped through southern parts of Spain earlier this month and claimed the lives of 13 people.
Professor Bill McGuire, Emeritus Professor of Geophysical & Climate Hazards at UCL, previously warned we could see 50C in Europe before the end of this year. He said: “It would be no surprise if 50C was exceeded, either later this summer or next year, when the heating impact of the unprecedented El Niño building in the Pacific will be at its greatest.”
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He added that there was “no doubt whatsoever” climate change was driving the extreme heat, explaining: “Europe is heating faster than any other continent as we continue to add more than 40 billion tonnes of CO2 to the atmosphere every year – equivalent to the weight of 800,000 Titanics.
“The average temperature of Europe is now more than 2C hotter than it was 100 years ago, and high temperature extremes are going up even faster. Heatwaves are getting hotter and longer, and taking many thousands of lives every year.”
