In just 12 days, Israel's operations against Iran fundamentally altered the regional balance of power, dismantling decades of Iranian military buildup while exposing the hollow nature of Tehran's threats. Here are my 12 key observations from this short but transformative conflict—a war that began with Iran's proxies attacking Israel and ended with the Islamic Republic's nuclear program in ruins and its regional influence questioned. These insights briefly summarize what happened, while analyzing what it means for the future of one of the most volatile regions in the world.
Israeli security and rescue forces at the scene where a ballistic missile fired from Iran hit and caused damage in Tel Aviv, June 17, 2025. (Credit: AVSHALOM SASSONI/FLASH90)
Israel was done with its targets
Once Israel bombed the "countdown clock"—that counted down to the IRGC's planned destruction of Israel on September 9, 2040—it was clear that Israel felt it did enough. You don't fly a plane 2,000 miles round trip for that.
The operation set Iran back by 20 years and saw not a single Israeli or American military casualty. The Iranians were so defeated that they didn't dare harm any US personnel, telegraphing their paltry face-saving response in advance.
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The Players and the Played
When the books are written, Netanyahu and Trump will be revealed as the main players, with everyone else being the "played." Don't be surprised if Trump's F-bomb comments were coordinated with Netanyahu so he could tell his cabinet hawks: "Sorry, Trump is crazy."
Regime Change?
The IRGC is humiliated, and no attempts to put on a brave face can save them. Their supporters are aging out. They are effectively the unwilling vassals of Israel and the USA. Their leaders live and operate at their pleasure and can be eliminated on a whim. The only question is how much, and for how much longer, will they be able to immiserate Iran's population of 90 million?
The threats of "regime change" and the bombing of the Basij HQ signaled what could be the next stage, and the 'permitted' and foolish lashing out at Qatar was letting them off the escalation ladder into what is: a humiliating surrender. While regime change would indeed be a dream outcome, it would be better coming from the inside and not from Israel or the United States.
Don’t be fooled: Iran is still a danger via its sleepers in the West—an asset they would still be able to use after their fall, albeit less so. Furthermore, regime change might be messy, so there is no reason for Israel or the US to have that blamed on them. From a purely Machiavellian perspective, it's better to have a weakened regime in Iran, under constant Israeli attrition as they try to rearm, than a strong, new Persia. It provides a useful foil to help unite Israel with the Arab states.
Legacy at Stake
There was no doubt in my mind that Netanyahu and Trump would dismantle the Iranian nuclear program, since they said they would, making an Iranian nuclear breakout a legacy-destroying cataclysm for both. Now, as they claim the program is destroyed, we can be assured that it is—since the destruction of both their legacies would be even more acute if they were proved wrong now. And there is now minimal impediment to continuing to attrit the program.
IRGC Rebuilding?
The IRGC may try to rebuild, but it will be much harder now that they live inside what, at any minute, might be Israeli airspace again. Also, with the regime so obviously penetrated from within, expect their levels of paranoia and recrimination to be overwhelming. Expect plenty of executions of all the wrong people, while Mossad assets safely continue their work, as usual.
Head of the Snake
The days of Israel not attacking the head of the octopus when the "tentacles" attack are over. Israel will be eager to use any proxy attacks as a casus belli to suppress their rebuilding efforts. Since Iran's cards were exposed as a bluff, any proxy attack is liable to bring kinetic responses on Iran.
Proxy warfare is great—until the other side decides to bypass them. They might not bother, since they fired over 550 ballistic missiles and 1,000 drones at Israel (in addition to at least the same number again they lost on the ground) and failed to kill a single serviceman or cause any strategic damage. What's the point of these programs? They spend 5 years rebuilding their stocks at the cost of billions just to kill a minibus full of civilians who didn’t make it to the bunker? A strategic player wouldn’t bother. Without the nuclear tips, this is not deterrence.
Trump’s Deniability Strategy
The war is over; Israel again stands alone. That's what Trump needed to appease the disinformation-infected parts of his base who promised World War III. If war restarts between Israel and Iran because the Houthis start up again, Trump can disclaim all involvement. That's what today was about. The start of the war saw the opposite: The US disclaimed any connection until it was clear that Israel was crushing the IRGC handily, and then suddenly it was "we."
11 Days to Decapitation
This war unraveled 40 years of Iranian buildup and virtually decapitated the regime in 11 days—without a single combat loss. There is simply no precedent for anything like this in world history. Nothing even close.
Israel Flips the Proxy Script
Israel has totally flipped the script. It can now attack Iranian proxies at will, with Iran not daring to fight back directly—the position Israel was in until 12 days ago. At the same time, it is now obvious that Israel has extensive links with armed opposition inside Iran and is free to mount an internal proxy war against the IRGC.
No Proxies When It Mattered
40 years of Iran building proxies to attack—and those proxies were totally absent when the time arrived. Simply brutal.
Israel’s Century Secured
Israel has secured its place in the Middle East for a century via overwhelming force, the only currency with any value in the region. Sinwar's folly sank the Axis of Resistance, which was the third great attempt to eliminate the Jewish state. Now it is surrounded by states that are either allies, vassals, or like Turkey facing the Kurds, busy with internal issues.
The Uranium...
Where is the enriched uranium? Netanyahu publicly stated, with a glint in his eye, that they know where it is. Don’t be surprised if the most audacious part of this war will one day be revealed to have been a special forces operation to extract it. More likely, Israel knows it’s under the rubble, and will be monitoring that rubble from afar for the foreseeable future...
Saul Sadka is an analyst and author of The Intertextual Tanakh.
This op-ed is published in partnership with a coalition of organizations that fight antisemitism across the world. Read the previous article by Adam Milstein.
