Tehran Is Still Losing the Long Game
James F. Jeffrey
June 25, 2026
JAMES F. JEFFREY is Philip Solondz Distinguished Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He served as a Foreign Service officer in seven U.S. administrations. From 2018 to 2020, he was Special Representative for Syria Engagement and Special Envoy to the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS.
Much of Washington has greeted the Iran cease-fire deal with scorn. After more than three months of war, the United States and Israel failed to achieve many of their objectives, which included overthrowing the regime in Tehran and ending a potential Iranian nuclear threat.
But when viewed from a broader perspective, the outcome looks different. The almost three-year-long regional conflict that started with Hamas’s attack on Israel in October 2023 and culminated in Operation Epic Fury this spring has put the United States and its partners in a far stronger position in the Middle East and left Iran much weaker.
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