Editor’s note: This is the sixth and final installment of a six-part series by pollster Brent Buchanan on the politics of the American South. In the last installment, Buchanan took a close look at Georgia to tell the story of the South’s political crossroads. Today, he offers suggestions for how Republicans can achieve political victory in the South.
We hope you enjoy.
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It’s easy to oversimplify American politics. But when it comes to our collective understanding of regionality, it really is as simple as North, East, South, and West.
Engrained in the minds across generations, defined by mighty rivers and a brutal Civil War, the South — more than any other region — is more politically consequential than it ever has been. For most of modern American history, the “Solid South” was a real thing that helped Democrats win the White House and the presidency.
Today, it is a myth.
The real story of America’s South, as you’ve been reading in this six-part series, is the story of an emerging patchwork of political intricacies and growing political dominance. Our exclusive analysis of the South shows 10 distinct regions transcending state lines and traditional constructs, showing vulnerabilities and opportunities for both parties – but more for Republicans — if they can capitalize before Democrats find a rudder and sales pitch.
State lines determine the borders for how we’ll count votes, but voters and their stances on key issues of the day don’t adhere to state lines. How well each party understands and adapts to the South’s regional realities will determine the balance of power for the 2026 midterm elections and the rest of Donald Trump’s presidency.
To culminate this deep analysis of aggregated demographic variables, survey responses, and trends in everything from education, income, gender, age, and partisanship, we offer four things Republicans should focus on to achieve political victory in the South.
Base Fortress Regions With GOP Ceilings
Pollsters and political operatives felt the tremors of America’s massive political realignment before most of the mainstream media caught on, but by now it’s common knowledge that Trump’s emergence as the central figure of political life was the catalyst of a growing Diploma Divide.
But Trump reflects an electorate whose political preferences began changing even before he came down that golden escalator.
While this realignment has happened nationally, it’s most prominent and evident in the South. For the Republican Party, three main regions anchor its new political advantage. What we’ve dubbed Dixieland, Big Sky South, and the Trumpian Highlands serve as base fortresses from diploma-divide-driven gains from Democrats — but offer little to no room for growth. In 2024, Trump’s ballot shares were 71% in Dixieland, 70% in the Big Sky South, and 75% in the Trumpian Highlands.
“This is about as good as it’s going to get for the GOP in these New South buttresses,” said Nicholas Valdiviez, Cygnal’s Sampling Lead for this project. “These three strongholds are reliable for Republicans, but it’s unreasonable to expect they can deliver more than they already have.”
So what? As we’ve seen in previous cycles, it can be easy to try and offset lagging performance in harder-to-get voter groups by surging turnout in reliable regions like these. But the GOP’s focus should be on keeping turnout and engagement at these levels — which won’t be easy as these areas aren’t growing as much as other Southern regions less friendly to Republicans. There’s more peril in the ceilings of these fortresses if voters are unenthused and stay home.
Wild Cards & Volatility: Regions That Could Flip
If you’ve followed this series, you know the only states we called out as standalone fixtures in the still uncertain political future of the South were Georgia and North Carolina. Beyond the regions we’ve identified as the TexMex Nexus and Coastal Condo Coalition, those are the two states with the highest volatility and uncertainty heading into the midterm elections.
North Carolina’s split personality in politics is mirrored by its split choice in barbeque sauces, while Georgia’s newish designation as a swing state is defined by a seeming disappearance of the traditional Black Belt and regional creep from the stronghold of the Trumpian Highlands. Both states are incredibly consequential to party control in Washington — but they’re not the only volatile areas we’re watching.
First, let’s look at the Coastal Condo Coalition, centered in Florida’s densely urbanized southern tip. It is one of the most demographically and economically unique regions in the South. Traditionally a Democratic stronghold (Democrats lead 45% to 32% in registration), this region has seen notable Republican gains since 2016, culminating in a 6.6% swing toward the GOP in 2024. This is its best performance in years, nearly flipping the partisan split to 49-51.
Then, let’s look at the TexMex Nexus. This region spans heavily Hispanic areas along the Texas border, and in scattered urban centers, it has been one of the most politically dynamic zones in our Southern analysis. After holding steady at a near 50-50 partisan split in 2012, this region took a sharp left turn in 2016, moving 10 points toward the Democrats — double the next largest leftward shift in the South. That trend continued into 2020 with another 4-point Democratic gain, making it seem like a prime target for Democrats as their registration advantage grew to 53% over the GOP’s 39%.
But 2024 brought a dramatic reversal, as the Tex-Mex Nexus saw the second-largest rightward swing of any region, moving 9 points toward Republicans and ending at a D+5 margin — a five-point improvement for the GOP compared to 2016. This shift was powered by significant Republican gains among Latino voters, particularly men, and by a focus on economic and border issues that resonated locally.
So what? With popular Governor Brian Kemp out of contention for the Georgia Senate race, the state remains in flux alongside its northern swing state counterpart, North Carolina. Factor in the fact that neither the Coastal Condo Coalition nor the TexMex Nexus is on lock for the GOP, and you have the four biggest wild cards in the South.
Stagnation & Gridlock in the “Sweet” Burbs and Faux South
So, now we’ve got the Republican strongholds identified and the wild cards laid out — but that’s only half the picture. Vast swaths of the South are in political gridlock where even the sheer force of personality from someone like Trump has managed to crack — or break. These are the regions we’ve labeled the Sweet Tea Suburbs and the Faux South. While old voting patterns seem to be fading, these regions remain “stuck zones,” political wastelands where entrenchment and razor-thin margins offer no clear advantage to either party.
“These are not battlegrounds in the traditional sense,” Valdiviez says. “Rather they are stagnant bogs who have more impact on their urban cores and outlying mixing zones of other regions and therefore should be pursued nice-to-have incremental gains rather than outright winnable. The catch is these areas are political fronts that if left unattended could wind up being potential wild cards.”
So what? With so much talk of massive realignments and sweeping partisan shifts, both in strongholds and wild cards, these doldrums are different, and should be approached differently. The GOP’s only hope is to nibble around the edges of these regions with dynamic quality candidates and a message more akin to hometowns than the machinations of Washington, D.C.
Growth Regions: The GOP’s Next Frontier
Now for the fun part: the opportunities for Republicans in the South. If you’ve been following along so far, it’s a bit of a rollercoaster to say the least, but here are the three regions we think will comprise the next frontier for Republicans.
The Soulful South stands out among them, but not because of the 58% Republican ballot share or because Georgia’s Black Belt is now less visible in our regional analysis. Rather, the Soulful South stands out because it has been trending rightward since 2012.
The fact that Democrats take these voters for granted — combined with the connection forged by Trump’s candidacy — has made the Soulful South a budding ground of opportunity for Republicans going forward. Overconfidence here is perilous, but with Democrats without a message or a messenger that resonates with this predominantly black region, our analysis shows more to gain for Republicans than to lose. They should keep their foot on the gas here.
Our proprietary naming conventions and analysis also identify the Republican Resettlers and Big Hat Bloc regions as prime opportunities. The Republican Resettlers region, fueled by an influx of newcomers from liberal states seeking communities with conservative governance (you heard that right), has shown some of the most consistent rightward movement in the South, swinging eight points further right by 2024 to reach an R+17 margin. As migration trends continue, especially along the Georgia and Florida coasts, this bloc is poised to expand its influence and deliver reliable support for Republican candidates.
Similarly, the Big Hat Bloc, which experienced setbacks during the early Trump years, has rebounded with record Republican margins in 2024. This region’s mix of cultural conservatism and economic focus makes it fertile ground for further Republican consolidation, especially if the party can maintain strong turnout and continue to address local priorities — much like those strongholds we addressed earlier.
With both regions trending right and absorbing new, like-minded residents, the GOP’s prospects for midterm gains are strong, provided they stay focused on localized outreach and avoid complacency in data, spending, and messaging.
So what? This is where Republicans should surge their efforts with non-college educated, non-white voters, and even those ticked-off, young, working class, and diverse voters within these regions. These are new constituencies for the GOP, and now is the time to further build out these inroads and lock in the gains for the post-Trump era.
Conclusion: The States and Their Shapes
As Americans, we know the regionality of our nation inherently, and we understand that state lines can be pesky and a bit funny. We also know those lines serve a multitude of purposes, chief among them governance and counting votes. With that in mind, it only makes sense to examine the South from our distinct regional perspective, noting that Texas and Florida alone are projected to gain eight new congressional seats by 2030, with other Southern states like Georgia, Tennessee, and North Carolina also on the rise.
This shift comes at the expense of traditional blue state strongholds in the Midwest, fundamentally redrawing the map of political opportunity in America. The parties that best understand these new Southern realities — where regional identities like we’ve defined here, not state lines, drive turnout and loyalty — will tip the upper hand for 2026 and the next decade.
But here’s the catch: like the Democrats before them, Republicans can’t afford to treat the South as a monolith or rely on pre-Trump playbooks.
The story of the South today is one of ceilings, wild cards, gridlock, and growth. The lesson for Republican campaigns, operatives, and strategists is as clear as it is urgent: the old assumptions are dead, and the new map of power is regional, dynamic, and deeply local. The party that can surge turnout in fortress regions, lock in gains in growth zones, nibble at the edges of gridlocked suburbs, and win the battle for the wild cards will be the party that defines the next era of American politics.