China’s birth rate is falling below replacement levels, raising questions over the Asian giant’s economic future.  

China’s population fell for the third consecutive year in 2024 as the older generation passes away and fewer babies are being born, despite China having ended its one-child policy in 2016. Now, Fortune reports that by 2050, China’s output growth could decline to below 2% as the number of workers declines and those dependent on China’s social support systems grows.  

“China’s demographic challenges, exacerbated by a shrinking and aging population, has been a long-term, inevitable consequence of China’s one-child policy,” Anthony Kim, a research fellow in economic freedom at The Heritage Foundation, told The Daily Signal.  

In China currently, according to World Population Review, there are 7.4 births per 1,000 people, falling from 20.9 per 1,000 in 1981. China experienced a slight increase in births in 2024, rising to 9.54 million from 9.02 million in 2023, but still not enough to counteract the death rate.  

The diminishing workforce could threaten China’s economic growth unless there is a “counterbalance,” Kim says. “This is where and why China’s aggressive [artificial intelligence] drive comes in, particularly in the context of automation that can practically deal with the labor-supply shortage that will become a bigger problem … for the economy, if the current trend continues.” 

A study published in the National Library of Medicine in 2022 found that if China did not find a way to address its shrinking population, there would be adverse impacts on “China’s future socio-economic situation.”  

“The repercussions may cascade to other spheres of China’s status,” the study found, including “security and global influence.” 

“This is a collapse in population,” Gordon Chang, a Gatestone Institute distinguished senior fellow, told The Daily Signal. He added that such a “collapse” will “obviously affect the economy.” 

Chang holds that China’s shrinking population makes the nation “more dangerous, rather than less.” 

“I think Chinese leaders probably see a closing window of opportunity, which means that they are motivated to be more risk-accepted. In other words … they could lash out and decide that they’ve got to move while they still can,” he said.  

Michael Pillsbury is a leading expert on China and author of “The Hundred-Year Marathon: China’s Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower.” He says he is “skeptical” about demographic projection research because it is “used all over the world as the reason why we shouldn’t do anything against the China threat.”  

“As a disinformation measure, China has been using these inflated demographic-decline statistics to argue there’s no threat from China,” Pillsbury warns.  

The U.S. currently has the largest economy in the world with a gross domestic product of $30.51 trillion. China is second with a GDP of $19.23 trillion, but it’s no secret China would like to surpass the U.S. 

AI could help “close the gap” on China’s shrinking workforce, according to Oxford Economics, which projects China will slow toward but stay “above a 2% annual growth pace” until 2050. 

Michael Cunningham, a research fellow at The Heritage Foundation’s Asian Studies Center, says a 2% growth rate is actually a “pretty standard rate for advanced economies,” warning he would be careful not to write China off over its declining birth rate.  

“China is not as held down by the way things have always been done as many other countries are,” Cunningham said, adding that “as we enter a new tech age with AI and robotics, quantum computing … China is really positioning itself at the forefront. I would say it’s important to really think seriously and strategically about its demographic challenges, but not to just take that as clear evidence that China is declining.”