A government-commissioned study has revealed that if there had been no "concrete embankment" at the site of the Jeju Air passenger plane crash in Muan, which killed 179 people, almost no fatalities would have occurred. The concrete embankment at Muan Airport was immediately identified as a major factor exacerbating the accident scale after the crash, but the government had maintained that "the embankment did not violate laws."
The findings were included in a "Collision Simulation Report" received by Kim Eun-hye, People Power Party lawmaker, from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport-affiliated Aviation and Railway Accident Investigation Board (ARAIB). The report was the result of a research project commissioned by ARAIB last year to the Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, analyzing the impact of the concrete embankment installed with a localizer (azimuth guidance facility) on the accident. Researchers used a supercomputer to create scenarios involving the crashed aircraft, runway, and structures, then conducted collision simulations.
According to the report, the aircraft landed on the runway at 374 km/h on December 29, 2024, and collided with the concrete embankment at 280 km/h. The front of the aircraft hit the embankment's top plate, followed 0.2 seconds later by the engine section. The explosion at this moment severely damaged the aircraft, the researchers concluded. The report stated, "The aircraft had not fully stopped at the time of collision, so the impact from its speed and explosive force was significant."
At the time of the accident, the concrete embankment was located 264 meters from the end of the runway at Muan Airport, with a fence behind it. When researchers simulated a scenario without the embankment, the aircraft stopped 630 meters beyond the embankment's original location after colliding with the fence. The report stated, "The aircraft would have passed through the fence, but the impact would not have been severe enough to cause serious injuries." Without the embankment collision and subsequent explosion, the aircraft would have slowed to 162 km/h before stopping, resulting in almost no fatalities.
The researchers added a caveat that "fire and explosion were not considered." Even without the embankment, there remained a possibility of fire and explosion from collisions with the fence or other structures, which were not factored into the analysis.
The researchers also stated that the concrete top plate added during the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport's 2020 localizer improvement project—measuring 40 meters long, 4.4 meters wide, and 0.3 meters high—did not influence the accident. The report noted, "The pre-improvement embankment structure without the top plate would have had a greater impact on passengers." The aircraft's collision with the top plate reduced its speed, lessening the impact on the engine section.
On the same day, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport submitted an opinion to the National Assembly stating, "The concrete embankment did not comply with regulations and should have been improved during the 2020 renovation project." Immediately after the accident, the ministry had claimed, "There was no legal violation," but later retreated, saying, "We only followed the physical interpretation of regulations." However, this day marked the first time the ministry admitted the embankment violated regulations. Analysts suggest this shift was influenced by ongoing police investigations into ministry officials and the newly released collision simulation results. Lawyer Ha Jong-seon, a specialist in aviation litigation, said, "In a situation where prosecution is difficult to avoid, they appear to have adjusted their strategy to emphasize post-accident improvement efforts. They might also be considering that false testimony during the ongoing national investigation, set to conclude by the end of this month, could lead to punishment."