Top Democrats are increasingly alarmed the party could lose the governor's race in traditionally blue New Jersey next month because of a series of stumbles by the Democratic nominee, U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill.

Why it matters: Both parties are investing millions in the race between Sherrill, a former Navy pilot, and Republican Jack Ciattarelli, an ex-state lawmaker — and it's getting national attention as a preview of the 2026 midterms.

• The prospect of a close election or even a loss in the Garden State has set off handwringing among Democrats.
• "So much for the Dem resistance if we are struggling to even win a N.J. governorship while Trump has taken a wrecking ball to the government and Constitution," said Democratic strategist Irene Lin, who isn't working on the race.
• "Sherrill has spent a fortune on polling and has no message beyond she flies helicopters and Ciattarelli loves Trump," Lin said. "How have we not learned … that tired anti-Trump attacks aren't enough?"

Behind the scenes: Some Democrats privately say Sherrill is a better candidate on paper than in reality. They argue she's been too scripted, hasn't focused enough on high prices, and has relied too much on staff from D.C. rather than New Jersey-based operatives.

• They're also concerned Ciattarelli is hustling to make inroads in Black communities that usually vote overwhelmingly for Democrats.
• Sherrill initially had trouble naming "one piece" of legislation she would pass in response to a question from a CBS New York reporter, which led to Ciattarelli blasting her in an ad.

In an interview with influential radio host Charlamagne tha God in May, Sherrill — who's in her fourth term in the House — struggled to answer questions about her family's increased wealth in recent years.

• When asked whether she made $7 million through stock trades as alleged in conservative media, she said, "I, I haven't ... I don't believe I did," and then said she'd have to check where the allegations originated.
• Ciattarelli's campaign responded by launching a website: MikieMadeMillions.com.

Another spot by a pro-Ciattarelli super PAC highlighted Sherrill saying clean power is "gonna cost you an arm and a leg, but if you're a good person, you'll do it."

• But the group's ad didn't say that Sherrill actually was criticizing her own party's messaging.
• A spokesperson for the Republican Governors Association, which backs the group behind the ad, declined to directly address taking Sherrill out of context and provided a statement attacking her energy record.

What they're saying: "Mikie Sherrill is running for governor to lower costs for New Jerseyans, and that has been her message since Day One. It led to a resounding primary victory, where she was underestimated by the press and pundits time and again, and now to a consistent polling lead in the general election," Sherrill's campaign manager Alex Ball said in a statement.

• Asked about the Charlamagne interview, Ball said: "Mikie does not own or trade individual stocks."

Zoom in: Sherrill is no stranger to competitive races after flipping her traditionally Republican congressional district in 2018.

• Sherrill and Ciattarelli were neck and neck in an Emerson College poll in September. A Fox News survey that month found Sherrill ahead by 8 points.
• Some private polling has shown the race within about 3 points, according to Democrats who saw the results.

National Democrats are investing more in the race than national Republicans, which ultimately could give Sherrill an edge.

• A super PAC backed by the Democratic Governors Association is on track to spend at least $25 million on advertising in the race since June, according to data by the ad-tracking firm AdImpact. New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy is the finance chair of the DGA.
• Republicans recently launched their own super PAC to boost Ciattarelli, but are on track to spend just $8 million so far, per AdImpact.
• Ciattarelli's campaign, however, is on track to spend $2 million more on ads than Sherrill's. Both candidates have run ads focused on tackling high utility costs.

The race has been rocked by a debate over the release of Sherrill's military records. She accused the Trump administration of acting illegally by providing the documents to a Ciattarelli ally. Ciattarelli responded by threatening legal action.

• Ciattarelli's team has been trying to unearth more information about why Sherrill didn't walk with her graduating class at the Naval Academy, which she said was a result of her not turning in her classmates involved in a cheating scandal.

Zoom out: New Jersey has been trending to the right in recent years.

• Trump lost New Jersey by 6 points in 2024, four years after Joe Biden beat him in the state by 15 points.
• New Jersey's 2021 gubernatorial race was also surprisingly close, with Murphy defeating Ciattarelli by 3 points.

Reality check: Most Democrats think Sherrill will eke out a victory because New Jersey still leans left, and voters typically turn out to oppose the party in the White House.

• "It's not a five-alarm fire, nor is it a cake walk," said Jesse Ferguson, a Democratic campaign vet who's not involved in the contest. "It's something in between."