The Iran MOU is leverage, not retreat

www.americanthinker.com

I've seen a lot of hysterical reactions to the memorandum of understanding the United States and Iran signed this week, but the reality is more straightforward.

My own strong preference was for the United States, Israel, the UAE, and our Gulf partners to finish the job outright. We may well have missed a historic chance to end a fanatical regime that endangers the entire world. But the panic over the MOU is misplaced, because it is not the product of weakness. It is the product of a president who has never once blinked on Israel's security, in either term.

Start with the record. I traveled to Israel regularly during Trump's first term. What struck me every time was how broadly and deeply Israelis supported and appreciated him — not just on the right, but across the political spectrum. That sentiment was grounded in something real. Over two terms, Donald Trump has built the most pro-Israel record of any American president. And it's not even close.

(1) Withdrew the United States from the Obama-era Iran nuclear surrender in 2018 and reimposed crushing sanctions. The JCPOA released roughly $150 billion in frozen assets and $1.7 billion in cash payments to the world's leading state sponsor of terrorism, allowed Iran to keep enriching uranium, included sunset clauses that let every key restriction expire within fifteen years, did nothing to address Iran's ballistic missile program or its funding of Hamas and Hezb’allah, and featured an inspection regime so weak that Iran got twenty-four days' notice before any military site could be examined. Obama called it a historic achievement. Iran called it a victory. They were both right. Trump was right to walk away.

(2) Recognized Jerusalem as Israel's capital and moved the U.S. embassy there in 2018, reversing decades of bipartisan avoidance.

(3) Recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights in 2019.

(4) Ordered the strike that killed IRGC Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani in January 2020.

(5) Brokered the Abraham Accords in 2020, normalizing relations between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan.

(6) Ordered the joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan in June 2025.

(7) Backed the February to April 2026 campaign that killed Khamenei and gutted Iran's nuclear, missile, and military infrastructure.

(8) Drove Iran's economy into freefall through renewed maximum-pressure sanctions and a Strait of Hormuz blockade.

(9) Invoked the Defense Production Act to accelerate munitions manufacturing, rebuilding the joint weapons capacity the United States and Israel depend on.

That is not the résumé of a man preparing to abandon Israel now.

The February 28 opening strikes killed Iran's supreme leader and dozens of senior IRGC commanders. Over the weeks that followed, strikes killed key officers in Iran's missile and drone programs and at least eight nuclear scientists tied to enrichment and weapons research. Economically, U.S. officials including U.N. Ambassador Mike Waltz have said Iran's currency is collapsing, its foreign reserves are nearly gone, and the regime is struggling to pay its own military and civil service. The IMF projects more than six percent economic contraction this year with inflation near sixty-nine percent, and the Hormuz blockade cut off the bulk of Tehran's oil revenue. That is the leverage Washington is negotiating from, not desperation.

The MOU itself mostly resets the board to where things stood on February 27: a ceasefire on every front including Lebanon, the naval blockade lifted, and the Strait of Hormuz reopened. U.S. officials say Israel is not being asked to withdraw from Lebanon and retains the right to respond if Hezb’allah violates the truce, though Iran has claimed otherwise — a dispute unresolved as of this writing.

Critics are also missing the point on money. Iran's own leaked draft demanded twenty-four billion dollars in frozen assets, broad sanctions relief, and a three-hundred-billion-dollar reconstruction package. Trump said this week the signed text does not include immediate sanctions relief. What Iran actually gets still depends entirely on how the talks go, not an upfront payout.

The real negotiation begins now, on a sixty-day clock, with nuclear issues front-loaded into the first thirty days. Judge the deal when there is a deal. Until then, Trump's pro-Israel record speaks for itself.

This is a fast-moving and contested war, and new information will keep emerging. I reserve the right to update my view as the full picture becomes clearer.

Josh Kantrow is a Chicago attorney who represents clients in technology and privacy litigation. He writes on law, politics, and culture at his Facebook page: facebook.com/share/1BLwcus4PR.

Image: Chickenonline via Pixabay, Pixabay License.