I had a conversation today with a well- nformed conservative (and religious) friend who claimed he “still can’t figure out why Trump went from telegraphing a narrative of complete disclosure (on Epstein) to suddenly slamming the brakes and adopting a narrative of ‘there’s nothing more to see here.’”  His assumption was that it’s because it could take down some individuals in Congress whose votes Trump needs, some big donors, or even Trump himself.  He speculated that perhaps this could be the reason that Elon bailed.

As sunlight is the best disinfectant, I prefer releasing everything.  My feeling is that there are probably more Democrats than Republicans implicated, though if it is the other way around, I’m still for full release and transparency.  However, logically, Epstein has been dead for six years already, so those implicated will by definition be the more entrenched careerists.  It could essentially become an exercise in “term-limiting” many career politicians, something any normal person (read: non-corrupt) should support.

Were there anything on Trump, the Biden maladministration would’ve already used it and released it to the corporate media to bend and distort against him.  Virginia Giuffre (G-d have mercy on her soul) already testified under oath that Trump did nothing inappropriate with her or any other young woman.

Elon bailed because Tesla stock was tanking.  It threatened his wealth and therefore his power.

So how is the president playing this, considering that his party has a slim majority in Congress?  Keep in mind that there are some congresspeople (or their mentors, staff, or donors) who are themselves implicated, and this represents a fatal risk to maintaining their power, reputation, or both.  The Epstein issue is so explosive, and has potential to be so disruptive, that the president must be precise as to the timing of the release.  My sense is that he wants to release the files, but he is and has been waiting to release until after the midterms.  At that point, the issue still matters, but it matters less.

Republicans are at an information disadvantage.  Not only do the Democrats control the legacy media, but they control the cultural narrative and universities, have unlimited capacity to fund protests and riots, and (as good commies) have no reluctance to say things that are half-true or even demonstrably untrue to further their ideology.  We now see them use “affordability” as an issue against Republicans after watching Biden spend four years throwing taxpayer money at every democrat NGO, “non-profit” and woke boondoggle their supporters could stand up.

Republicans don’t behave in this way.  To anger a Republican, lie to him.  To anger a Democrat, tell him the truth.  Therefore, releasing prior to the midterms would increase the Republican information disadvantage, put the GOP on the defensive, and provide the pathological liars and their surrogates with material that will be used to combat the critical midterms.  

Here's how I believe Trump is playing it:

If the Democrats somehow are able to win the midterms (read: they figure out a way to cheat enough), the president may have an opportunity to “nuke” the results by releasing the Epstein files immediately thereafter.

If the Republicans win the midterms, then there’s a subtle and complex calculation required prior to releasing.  This has to do with how many Republicans compared to Democrats the release has a potential to take down.

The calculation goes something like this:

How many senators and House members could lose their seats, and how would that impact the makeup of the House and Senate?  If it could turn either chamber of Congress blue, then wait to release.

How reliable would the governors (of the defenestrated congressmen — there’s a low probability that there are any congresswomen implicated) when it comes to replacing them with new, MAGA congressmembers? 

The reason Secretary Rubio is not still a senator from the State of Florida is that

Florida governor Ron DeSantis can be relied upon to do the right thing;

Governor DeSantis had a magnificent Florida state attorney general, Ashley Moody, with whom to replace Rubio, and

Governor DeSantis had an equally magnificent A.G. replacement for Senator Moody: James Uthmeier.

If the calculation comes out pro-MAGA, then the administration releases after the midterms, reconstitutes Congress, and pushes hard to get as much of its agenda through as it can in Trump’s final two years.  If not, then Trump waits to release until the waning months of the administration, giving the country a much needed enema ahead of the general election — but not too far ahead to allow the mainstream liars to gain traction.

Remember Trump’s comments this spring downplaying the Epstein files?  And Kash Patel and Dan Bongino also saying that after reviewing the evidence, they believe that Epstein died by suicide?  There’s no risk in confirming the official narrative.  Somehow, new facts will eventually come to light, but only when the timing is advantageous.  This tactic enabled the DOJ to kick the can down the road until the timing is more politically favorable.

What to watch, potentially: If visits by Republican governors to the White House start to visibly increase, it signals that there are enough criminal blue-city Democrats in red states (New Orleans, Houston, Tampa, Jacksonville, West Palm Beach, Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland, Atlanta, Charleston as examples) to make pulling the trigger politically advantageous.

A storm is brewing.

Image: Gage Skidmore via Flickr, CC BY-SA 2.0.