The potential for a military clash between Turkey and Israel is growing.  There are several colliding points, and each one of them has the potential to become a full-scale war, despite mechanisms designed to avoid conflict.

The most obvious is the Syrian front.  Reports indicate that Turkey plans to help Syria’s transitional government develop a military force of approximately 200,000 personnel (approximately 10–15 divisions).  Turkey has assumed the role of protector of Syria’s president, Ahmed al-Sharaa (al-Jolani, his nom de guerre).  Israel, for its part, has assumed the role of protector of the Druze minority in southwestern Syria, an area that Israel seeks to demilitarize.  The establishment of Turkish army and air force bases throughout Syria might be the next step.  Should al-Sharaa, with Turkey’s support, seek to forcibly subjugate the Druze or perhaps even the Kurds, clashes between Israel and al-Sharaa’s Turkish overlords would be inevitable.

Another point of contention between Turkey and Israel will likely be Gaza.  Israel is adamantly opposed to Turkey being part of the Gaza International Stabilization Force (ISF), not to mention having Turkish troops next to Israel’s borders.  Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s affinity toward the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas, with whom he shares the Muslim Brotherhood ideology, would, in all likelihood, not force Hamas to disarm and carry out its expulsion from Gaza.  Erdoğan is hoping to mobilize all Palestinian factions against Israel and would do everything possible to keep Hamas armed and in control of Gaza.  Erdoğan’s positions are religious as well as geopolitical imperatives that he hopes will weaken the Jewish state, if not destroy it outright.

The Mediterranean Sea is another area of disputation between Israel and Turkey.  The alliance among Cyprus, Greece, and Israel, which establishes defined territorial boundaries for oil and gas exploration, does not sit well with Ankara.  Turkey considers the Mediterranean an open sea — one whose wide swaths will help to establish its expansionist ambitions.  Erdoğan is currently delivering heavy equipment to Gaza via the sea.  Should he begin sending naval ships, that will definitely create a clash point.

Erdoğan’s Turkey poses a major threat to Israel, far more of a threat than the Islamic Republic of Iran.  The existential threat to Israel from Iran is primarily from its nuclear potential and readiness to use a nuclear bomb against the Jewish state.  During the 12 Days’ War of June 2025, Israel and the U.S. delivered a major blow to Iran’s nuclear facilities, although not a complete setback.  With the weakening of Iran and the Shia crescent due to Israel’s devastating blows to Iran’s proxies — Hezb’allah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza — and with Iran’s loss of a free hand in Bashar Assad’s Syria, Turkey is fast becoming the patron of Syria’s new jihadist president.  The authoritarian and megalomaniacal Erdoğan is seeking to create a Sunni-Muslim crescent around Israel and resuscitate the glory of the Ottoman Empire.

Unlike Iran, Erdoğan’s Turkey is not burdened by international and Western sanctions.  Moreover, Turkey is a member of NATO and has one of the group’s more potent militaries.  Turkey possesses a fairly sophisticated arms manufacturing industry, particularly drones, as well as its own aircraft production — and an arsenal of over 200 American F-16 fighter jets. 

Turkey is vying for America’s most advanced supersonic stealth fighter jets — the F-35 — designed as a multirole aircraft for air superiority.  The Trump administration is considering selling it to Erdoğan, and Donald Trump himself has repeatedly called Erdoğan a “close friend.”  Such a sale to the Turks would offset the balance of power in the region, and Israel would find itself at a major disadvantage.  It would also indicate that President Trump has chosen to side with Turkey’s authoritarian dictator over Israel’s Western democracy that shares America’s values.  It would show that Trump has nominated Turkey rather than Israel as its major ally in the Middle East.

The Turkish Gross Domestic Product (GDP), estimated in 2024 to be $ 1.307 trillion, places it among the world’s 20th largest economies.  Its population in 2025 is approximately 87.7 million.  Turkey’s historical enemy, Russia, has been weakened as a result of the nearly four-year war with Ukraine.  Whereas Turkey meddled in the affairs of Saudi Arabia and Egypt in the past, particularly in the 2010s, the situation in 2025 is marked by a rapprochement and growing cooperation in political, economic, and security matters.  Turkey is also involved in Africa; in Libya, it supports the Tripoli regime.  It operates a large overseas military base in Somalia.

In recent times, Turkey has also extended its influence in the Caucasus region between the Black and Caspian Seas.  Azerbaijan’s victory over Armenia during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict gave Turkey added prestige.  Israel had supported the Azeris (Baku is the capital) with arms, whereas Russia and Iran supported Armenia.

Israeli-Turkish relations were not always adversarial.  In fact, during the 1990s, there were excellent relations between the two countries, marked by military and intelligence cooperation, political and strategic alignment, and close economic ties.  Turkey was also the first Muslim-majority state to recognize Israel, on March 28, 1949.

President Donald Trump can defuse the current tense situation by making it clear to Erdoğan that Israel has security interests in Syria and is protecting the safety of the Druze community, and to some extent the Kurdish minority.  Furthermore, selling Erdoğan the F-35 would be detrimental to Israel’s security and must not happen.  Washington sale of F-35s to Turkey would result in the butchery of the Kurds in northern Syria and give Erdoğan military superiority in the region, furthering his expansionist ambitions.  Finally, Trump could also mediate between Ankara and Jerusalem for resumption of trade and cooperation in the energy field to avoid a confrontation in the Mediterranean Sea.

It’s abundantly clear that as long as the Islamist Erdoğan is running Turkey, a military clash between Turkey and Israel is more than likely.

Image: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, president of Turkey.  Credit: www.kremlin.ru via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0.