“I have never advocated war except as a means of peace.” — Ulysses S. Grant

I’ve been following U.S. naval ship movements in the Mediterranean, Red Sea, and Persian Gulf, the bomber build-up at Diego Garcia, and USAF logistics air traffic out of Dover, Langley, and Charleston air bases.

Something is up, and it’s not a white or green flag.

If I had to speculate, I’d say the U.S. plan is to allow the IAF to definitively clear the air defense and airspace over Iran; then USAF heavy bombers will deliver a coup de grȃce to those hardened Iranian underground nuclear facilities.

Israel does not possess heavy bombers, nor do they possess the most potent conventional ground penetrating munitions.

Donald Trump suggests “something big” is pending, something like a flock of USAF B-2s and B-52s. Indeed, the B-2 is the only aircraft that carries the Massive (15-tons) Ordnance Penetrator (GBU-57) bunker buster, mother of all conventional bombs, heretofore never used in combat.

There is a trifecta of good reasons for finishing Iran whilst it is on the ropes: tactical, operational, and strategic.

It might take a few days to get all the pieces in place, but I would venture a guess, short of the Ayatollahs saying “uncle,” any joint IAF/USAF air operation, if successful, will be both definitive and historic.

Tactical Rationale

Not to be too cynical, but generals everywhere don’t just like new toys, but they seek realistic opportunities to test weapons under kinetic conditions. The Pentagon is no exception.

The B-2 Spirit stealth bomber has seen action before in Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya. The GBU-57 bomb is still a virgin, however, never been tested in combat. The Iranian threat, magnified by theocratic animus and political intransigence, provides a tactical opportunity.

Operational Rationale

If the attacks on Iran’s hardened facilities are successful, the IAF and USAF will have achieved an unprecedented operational success, denuclearizing a hostile, if not existential threat, to Israel, Sunni Arabs, and the wider Levant.  

Strategic Rationale

If we consider the war with Iran from a strategic perspective, the reasons for a combined Israeli/American air campaign are even more compelling. If successful, a defeat of a toxic totalitarian theocracy would be a sea change for politics in the Middle East and possibly the Moslem world at large.

Not that anyone seeks redemption for the recent Afghanistan fiasco under Joe Biden, but looking away as we did whilst Pakistan acquired the first Islam bomb was a grievous and historic strategic error while Bill Clinton was in the Oval Office. Today, the Pakistan janissary is just a few rifle shots away from becoming the second Taliban kill in South Asia.

So let’s not be coy. If regime change in Tehran happens to be an “unintended” consequence of the Iran/Israel war, few countries in the world would mourn the passing of the Ayatollah era.

To ignore the Iranian nuclear threat, would be to repeat the Clinton era Pakistan folly. The perennial struggle of Israel and the West against both Shiite and Sunni radicals is now a bellwether for the democratic world.

Huntington was correct; the clash of civilizations over the last 1,600 years is still real and persistent. Who wins these small wars matters.

Wither Israel, so go us all.

G. Murphy Donovan, former USAF Intelligence officer, writes about the politics of intelligence and national security.

Image from Grok.