When Russian drones pierced Polish skies this month, President Trump mused that it “could have been a mistake.” Warsaw flatly rejected that assessment, insisting that the violation was no accident. In truth, the incursions — first drones over Poland, then drones straying into Romania, and most recently Russian fighter jets loitering in Estonian airspace — are not random errors of navigation. They are deliberate probes in a coordinated campaign by Vladimir Putin to test NATO’s readiness and political will.
A Rapid-Fire Pattern of Incursions
In the space of ten days, Russia has triggered three separate airspace crises along NATO’s eastern flank:
Poland (Sep. 10–12): At least 17–19 Russian-made drones violated Polish territory. NATO and Polish jets scrambled, marking the first time the Alliance shot down Russian drones inside NATO airspace since the war began. Poland immediately invoked NATO’s Article 4, demanding consultations on collective security.
Romania (Sep. 13): Romanian authorities confirmed another drone breach during Russia’s massive overnight strikes on Ukraine, forcing a defensive scramble. This followed earlier drone debris incidents in 2024 but now occurred in the context of a coordinated assault involving hundreds of drones and missiles.
Estonia (Sep. 19): Three Russian MiG-31 fighters entered Estonian airspace near Vaindloo Island for twelve minutes — with transponders off, no flight plans, and no communication with air traffic control. NATO’s quick-reaction Italian F-35s responded. Estonia, too, invoked Article 4. Russia promptly denied the violation, repeating the familiar “probe and deny” mantra.
When one or two drones wander off course, technical malfunction is plausible. When nineteen drones fall across Poland, another breaches Romanian skies, and three Russian fighters linger inside Estonian territory — all in a matter of days, all while Moscow launches record barrages against Ukraine — the pattern is unmistakable. This is not drift; it is doctrine.
The Summit Sequence: From Anchorage to Beijing
The timing of these provocations underscores the strategic choreography behind them.
Anchorage (Trump-Putin, Aug. 2025): The Alaska summit ended without a deal on Ukraine. Reports suggested that Moscow saw Washington as cautious — eager to talk and reluctant to escalate. For Putin, this was an opportunity. Less than a month later, his drones were over Poland. The message was clear: He would test whether Trump’s cautious tone extended to NATO’s eastern flank.
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (Xi-Putin, Sep. 2025): At the SCO’s 25th anniversary meeting, Putin stood shoulder-to-shoulder with Xi Jinping and other authoritarian allies. Days later, Russia unleashed its largest drone and missile barrage of the war — over 800 drones and 40 missiles — and began probing NATO airspace from Poland to Estonia. The sequence — summitry with Xi, then military escalation — was designed to show that Russia is not isolated, but emboldened by China’s support.
Beijing Military Parade (Sep. 2025): Putin and Kim Jong-un watched as China displayed advanced missile and drone systems in Tiananmen Square. Days later, those same systems — or their Russian variants — were flying into NATO skies. The parade was not theater; it was a prelude to action.
Taken together, these summits and shows of force reveal a strategic layering: diplomatic optics (summitry), military demonstrations (parades and salvos), and tactical probes (airspace incursions). Putin is measuring NATO’s reflexes at every level — military, political, and psychological.
The Risks of Misreading Putin’s Intentions
To dismiss these incursions as accidents is to invite more of them. Putin thrives on ambiguity, testing red lines just short of war. If NATO underreacts, he gains impunity. If NATO overreacts — say, by shooting down manned fighters — he gains propaganda and escalation leverage.
The correct path is neither complacency nor recklessness, but decisive, measured action.
What NATO and Washington Must Do
Unified Condemnation: NATO and the Trump administration should issue a clear, collective statement condemning these violations, leaving no ambiguity about Alliance solidarity. Sovereignty is not negotiable.
Strengthen the Eastern Flank: Deploy additional Patriot, NASAMS, and radar systems to Poland, the Baltics, and Romania. Expand AWACS patrols and quick-reaction sorties. Deterrence by denial is essential.
Article 4 in Practice: Use Poland’s and Estonia’s Article 4 invocations to convene urgent NATO consultations. These sessions should not be perfunctory but should produce concrete measures — more integrated air defense, faster rules of engagement, and public evidence releases to counter Russian denials.
Controlled Signaling: NATO pilots and air defense units should employ non-kinetic but unmistakable signals — such as radar lock-ons or visible ADA deployments — to show readiness to escalate without crossing the threshold into open conflict.
Escalation Control: Pair visible deterrence with open military-to-military hotlines to prevent accidental clashes. Strength through clarity reduces the risk of escalation.
Preserving Peace through Strength
Some will argue that locking radars on Russian fighters or visibly rotating ADA batteries risks provoking Moscow. But history teaches the opposite lesson. Weak responses invite further aggression. Strong, proportionate, and unified responses — backed by evidence, diplomacy, and defensive posture — are the surest way to deter.
Putin has a strategy: test, deny, escalate incrementally, and exploit Western hesitation. He has the backing of Xi and Kim, the confidence of recent summitry, and the momentum of record drone barrages. NATO must have a strategy, too — decisive but measured, unified yet controlled.
As Prime Minister Tusk warned, Poland is closer to conflict than at any time since World War II. That is not a warning to be brushed aside. The stakes are not just the sovereignty of Poland, Romania, or Estonia. They are the credibility of NATO itself.
Robert Maginnis is a retired U.S. Army infantry officer and the author of twelve books, the most recent being Preparing for World War III.
Image: www.kremlin.ru via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0.
