The 2028 general election is still years off, yet speculation about the most likely Democratic presidential candidates for 2028 is already underway. As a Catholic, I will never vote for a Democrat as I can't support abortion, chemically sterilizing children, surgically mutilating their genitals, or putting graphic pornography in K-12 classrooms. Still, it's always a good idea to know who you're up against.

Although there is as yet no clear frontrunner, five individuals stand out due to their national profiles, political experience, and early positioning: Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Josh Shapiro.

As the former Vice President and 2024 Democratic presidential nominee, Kamala Harris has name recognition and an established donor network. It remains to be seen whether those donors see fit to pony up again after she blew through $1 billion in 100 days and still managed to lose. The February 2025 SurveyUSA poll, shows her leading, with 37% support among Democratic voters, and a March 2025 Economist/YouGov poll shows that 58% of Democrats would consider voting for her in 2028.

While her tenure as Vice President and her 2024 campaign gave her national and international exposure, for the most part it was detrimental. She speaks in word salads and her appearances were either staged or recorded and edited afterwards. She failed to win any swing states in 2024 and some Democrats are tying her to Biden's disastrous administration. She is reportedly considering a run for the California governorship in 2026 which would preclude a 2028 presidential bid.

Coming in at a distant second is Pete Buttigieg, with the SurveyUSA poll showing him at 11%. While he is praised by the Left for his articulate media appearances, he manages to say very little of substance while using a great many words to do so. His experience as mayor of South Bend, Indiana and Transportation Secretary is not as extensive as that of governors or senators. He did gain some visibility in Biden's cabinet, but like Harris, none of it was beneficial and may even push voters to seek a clean break. He took an extended paternity leave and even when he was on the job he accomplished nothing significant.

His choice to forgo a 2026 Senate or gubernatorial run in Michigan which could signal his intention to make a 2028 presidential run. He'll only be 46 years old in 2028, which might appeal to the base, although many question whether America is ready to elect an openly gay president.

Gavin Newsom has been California's governor since 2019 and so has significant executive experience. The Left likes him because he's photogenic and has resisted President Trump. He's built a nationwide donor network and maintains a high public profile through debates and podcasts. The SurveyUSA poll lists him with 9% Democrat support for POTUS.

He does not support men playing in women's sports, which has alienated some liberal activists. More damaging, he was one of five Democrat governors who placed COVID-positive patients in nursing homes during the pandemic, resulting in numerous deaths.

Not all voters resonate with California's progressive policies, especially in swing states. This is demonstrated by the millions of Californians who have fled the state during Newsome's tenure. While Newsom’s executive experience and national network make him a strong contender, he must widen his appeal beyond coastal elites.

Continuing down the list of empty suits, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) comes in at 7% on the SurveyUSA poll. She has been appearing with Bernie Sanders and offering vocal opposition to President Trump's policies. This has energized young Leftists who see her as bringing "youthful vigor" to a party struggling with the status quo.

Her progressive positions may alienate moderate Democrats and those in swing states. She lacks executive or statewide experience, and routinely suffers from criticism from those in her own district, although her base remains loyal.

Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro is also a contender. He has a growing national profile and unique strengths that could position him as a potential Democrat frontrunner.

Pennsylvania is a critical battleground state with its 19 electoral votes and Shapiro has demonstrated electoral success. He won the 2022 gubernatorial race by a wide margin (56.5% to 41.7%) against Republican Doug Mastriano. One Democrat strategist notes that “any path for a Democrat to win the White House in 2028 likely involves Pennsylvania,” and Shapiro’s popularity gives him an edge.

Shapiro has a reputation as a pragmatic centrist who works across the aisle in Pennsylvania’s divided legislature. He has moderately supported policies like school vouchers and corporate tax cuts which has earned praise from some Republicans, enhancing his appeal to moderate and swing voters. His administration quickly repaired I-95 after a 2023 collapse, which has bolstered his image as a competent executive.

His primetime speech at the 2024 Democratic National Convention and extensive campaigning for Harris (raising $9 million for Democrats) have elevated his stature and he is consistently described as Pennsylvania’s most popular elected official.

He'll be 55 in 2028 which is attractive for a party looking for a fresh face and he is comfortable with the media, enhancing his ability to connect with voters. He's proud of his Jewish faith, which could resonate with voters seeking diversity, although it might conflict with the rising antisemitism on the Left. Shapiro’s support for Israel during the Gaza conflict has drawn flak from the progressive wing. In April, Shapiro's residence was firebombed by a suspect who the police say "targeted" him. Shapiro handled the incident gracefully and emphasized unity, but such events could raise concerns about polarization.

Shapiro is up for re-election in 2026. A strong performance will strengthen any presidential prospects he may have, but a weak one could derail them. Shapiro has swing-state credibility, some bipartisan appeal, and executive experience making him a top-tier candidate. His fundraising network and media presence position him to compete with established names like Harris and Buttigieg. However, he must overcome progressive skepticism and build national recognition, likely through high-profile media appearances, a potential book, or stumping in early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire. Although the race remains wide open, I believe Shapiro's executive experience and electability make him the one to watch.

Other possible contenders, like Mark Cuban, Andy Beshear, or Phil Murphy are occasionally mentioned but their paths are as yet unclear. While other names might surface over the next three years, I believe that early polling may reflect more name recognition than firm support. Harris and Shapiro are benefitting from their ties to their party establishment and possess some swing-state credibility. On the other hand, Buttigieg, Newsom, and AOC appeal to distinct factions within the Democrat party.

One possible candidate who concerned me in the past was Michelle Obama. However, her recent pronouncements on her podcast have alleviated those. She shares a trait with Harris and AOC, and Hillary Clinton for that matter; the more she speaks, the less people like her. She is coming across as manipulative, entitled, and ungrateful.

Whoever the Democrat nominee will be needs to bridge the extreme Left and moderate wings of the party while also appealing to a polarized electorate.

Image: AT via Magic Studio