Democrats' Gubernatorial Nominee in New Jersey Smears Charlie Kirk

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In New Jersey's gubernatorial race, Republican Jack Ciattarelli is hoping to build on some of the momentum Republicans have experienced within the Garden State in recent election cycles.  The seat is open, with incumbent Phil Murphy, a Democrat, term limited.  As we've previously covered, Trump only lost there by mid-single digits in 2024, making significant gains in some major working communities -- including communities of color.  Could that translate into a real chance for an upset GOP victory in November?  I'd still say that the odds remain relatively low, but there's a reason Republicans in the state feel energized.  

The polling average continues to show Democrat Mickie Sherrill as the favorite to win, but a few recent surveys have measured a tight race, with one outlier even giving Ciattarelli a narrow edge:


The GOP is also working to continue to close the considerable registration gap they've faced for many years. Ciattarelli is also making an aggressive case to voters, as demonstrated in last weekend's debate:


Sherrill isn't an overly impressive candidate, as evidenced by cringeworthy performances in interviews earlier in the campaign:


She refused to commit to "anything right now," when asked about whether she'd keep tax increases off the table.  The 'right now' seems like the operative phrase there.  She also had this to say about Charlie Kirk:

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Sherrill, who is a sitting Congresswoman, voted in favor of the House resolution honoring Kirk and condemning his murder.  It seems as though she also needs to posthumously smear him, in order to play to a large element of her party's angry and even pro-violence base. Republican-aligned voter registration guru Scott Pressler thinks the Jersey race is "winnable," but is concerned about complacency among GOP voters.  Democrats have been over-performing in special elections since Trump's 2024 victory, underscoring their 'high propensity' advantage.  If conservative voters keep making excuses and assuming their opponents' extremism will prevent them from winning, Pressler is warning of a brutal wake-up call both this year and next year.  From an article published earlier this month:

Popular MAGA activist Scott Presler has a pressing warning for President Donald Trump and the GOP ahead of the 2026 midterms. In a post on X, Presler reacted to the overwhelming defeat on Tuesday of a Republican candidate in a special election to fill the House seat of late Virginia Democratic Rep. Gerry Connolly...Although Democrat James Walkinshaw, a Fairfax County board supervisor, was heavily favored to win in the deep-blue 11th Congressional District, he defeated Republican Stewart Whitson, an Army veteran and former FBI agent, by a landslide. Walkinshaw secured 75% of the vote, according to The New York Times, while Connolly has historically taken home around 66%, or a two-to-one margin, The Washington Post reported. Former Vice President Kamala Harris won around two-thirds of the vote in the district during the 2024 presidential election. Presler, who has been on the ground helping register Republican voters across the country, found the election outcome to be quite revealing. “‘Scott, Republicans are going to vote on Election Day.’ ‘Scott, there’s no need to vote early or vote by mail.’ ‘Scott, we need everyone to vote on one single day,’” Presler wrote, mocking common responses that he appears to hear from fellow Republicans. “Y’all are going to lose 2026 & it’s going to be bad,” he added.

Despite slumping to all-time lows on favorability, Democrats are leading on the generic Congressional ballot, including by a rather significant margin in a polling series that was generally very GOP- and Trump-favorable in the 2024 cycle:


Other polling looks significantly better for the GOP, to be sure, but the concern remains that the Democrats' people turn out.  Republicans and Republican leaners often can't be bothered.  I'll leave you with the latest out of Virginia's race for governor, in which the Democrat is also leading:


This is an example of how her base thinks and feels:

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