PULSE POINTS

❓WHAT HAPPENED: A poll shows Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) trailing New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) by only three percentage points in a hypothetical gubernatorial match-up.

👤WHO WAS INVOLVED: Rep. Elise Stefanik, Gov. Kathy Hochul, and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R).

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📍WHEN & WHERE: The poll was conducted November 9-10 among 500 likely New York voters.

🎯IMPACT: The poll suggests Hochul is vulnerable to a 2026 challenge by Stefanik and indicates increasingly competitive election dynamics in New York.

A new poll conducted by J.L. Partners shows Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) trailing incumbent Governor Kathy Hochul (D) by just three points in a hypothetical gubernatorial match-up. The survey of 500 likely New York voters found Hochul leading Stefanik 46 percent to 43 percent, with 11 percent undecided.

Stefanik, who recently announced her gubernatorial campaign, has positioned herself as a strong supporter of President Donald J. Trump. She was first elected to Congress in 2014 to represent New York’s 21st Congressional District and served as the House GOP Conference Chair from 2021 to 2025. Trump had nominated her for U.S. ambassador to the United Nations in January, but the nomination was later withdrawn to ensure her vote remained in Congress for key legislative priorities.

The poll also revealed that Stefanik enjoys a commanding lead over Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R) in a potential GOP primary, with 74 percent support compared to Blakeman’s five percent. Blakeman, 70, is believed to be preparing to announce his candidacy for governor soon.

Gov. Hochul’s job performance received mixed reviews in the poll, with 40 percent of respondents strongly or somewhat approving and 54 percent strongly or somewhat disapproving. Meanwhile, 37 percent of voters view Stefanik very or somewhat favorably, while 32 percent hold unfavorable views of her.

The survey, conducted November 9-10, has a margin of error of 4.4 percent.

Image by Gage Skidmore.

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