Four years ago, voters in New Jersey signaled a massive change in the nation’s political mood when with Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli nearly upset incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy (D) in this blue state. The message was clear: Republican policies are ascendant. Since then, federal Republicans have taken back both houses of Congress and the White House.

The off-year elections this fall in New Jersey and Virginia are once again poised to be national political bellwethers. In the case of New Jersey, the election offers voters a referendum on the blue state model of governance: high taxes, increasing energy costs and burdensome regulations.

Nowhere are the consequences of this model more evident than with small businesses. For years, Main Street entrepreneurs in the Garden State have been fighting uphill battles against some of the most hostile economic policies in America. The Tax Foundation ranks New Jersey as the second-worst state for doing business, behind only New York.

Consider taxes. New Jersey’s top individual income tax rate, paid by many small “pass-through” businesses, is 10.75 percent, and its second-highest rate is 9 percent — among the most punishing in the nation. The state’s corporate income tax rate is the highest in the country.

Then there’s the state’s notorious property tax, also the highest in the nation, that sticks many small businesses and ordinary homeowners with annual bills that amount to around 3 percent of their property values. The state’s ANCHOR property tax relief program explicitly excludes businesses, even though they shoulder nearly half of New Jersey’s property tax burden.

Energy costs pile on more pain. Thanks to Trenton’s forced march toward costly wind and solar mandates, New Jersey now has the 12th-highest electricity rates in the nation. They rose an additional 20 percent this summer alone. Every extra dollar businesses must pay in electricity costs is one less for staff or expansion.

New Jersey businesses are also drowning in red tape. Take the state’s paid sick leave law. On paper, it sounds compassionate. In practice, it forces even the smallest mom-and-pop shops to pay workers not to work.

Tax, energy and regulatory costs have to come from somewhere. Low-margin businesses often pay them by hiring less, decreasing wages and raising prices, hurting ordinary New Jersey workers and consumers.

Many small businesses and families have had enough. Nearly 200,000 residents on net have fled New Jersey for other states since 2020, draining billions in income and consumer spending from the state.

Instead of reversing course, Trenton keeps doubling down. It recently tripled its so-called “mansion tax” that applies even to commercial properties. This is nothing short of state expropriation of Main Street businesses that have worked for decades to improve their properties and neighborhoods.

This hostile climate hits minority entrepreneurs especially hard. I have documented the Hispanic entrepreneurship boom sweeping the country, and I talk with new Latino business owners every day. Too often, they face steeper barriers in New Jersey — whether in taxes, energy costs or regulations — than in other states, especially compared to their whiter, wealthier counterparts.

This fall, voters must decide whether New Jersey will keep following the failed blue state model or chart a new course that unleashes small business growth and opportunity.

Four years ago, New Jersey helped set the tone for the nation. It can do so again by sending a message that the days of high taxes, excessive energy costs and burdensome regulation are over, and that the future belongs to small businesses and workers, not special interests.

Alfredo Ortiz is CEO of Job Creators Network, author of “The Real Race Revolutionaries,” and co-host of the Main Street Matters podcast.