Minnesota’s burgeoning fraud revelations threaten to put the state in play politically. Tim Walz’s sudden, surprise exit indicates this could be true in 2026 and 2028. Democrats’ long-time dominance there all the more precarious for the fact that, below the surface, Minnesota was already on the precipice.

Minnesota has long appeared to be a Democratic stronghold. No Republican presidential candidate has won there since Richard Nixon in 1972. The state has produced historic Democratic stalwarts like Vice Presidents Hubert Humphrey (D) and Walter Mondale (D). 

It also produced the new generation of further-left liberals like former Sen. Paul Wellstone (D). Rep. Ilhan Omar (D), leader in today’s far-left Squad, hails from there. And Walz, the state’s current governor, was the Democrats’ 2024 vice presidential nominee.

Democrats have acted as though the state was as far left as any in America. Minnesota allows abortion through all nine months of pregnancy and labels itself a “trans refuge” state. It is not a right-to-work state, and it has one of the nation’s highest tax rates. Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey (D) was at the epicenter of the nation’s civil unrest in the wake of George Floyd’s 2020 death. Lt. Gov. Karen Flanagan recently wore a hijab in a show of support with Minneapolis’s large Somali community.

Yet beneath the surface, Minnesota Democrats’ dominance has been showing cracks. President Trump lost the state in 2024 by less than 5 percentage points. Despite the pandemic, civil unrest, recession and relaxed voter rules, Trump lost Minnesota by 7 points in 2020. And in 2016, Trump lost Minnesota by less than 2 points.

Even in 2012, in the midst of former President Barack Obama’s rout of Mitt Romney (R-Utah), Democrats won Minnesota by less than 8 percentage points.

Although scandals never come at good times for those ensnared, today’s federal payment fraud allegations are particularly poorly timed for Minnesota Democrats. 

A national political figure until just months ago and the presumptive frontrunner in this year’s governor race, Walz has now not only withdrawn from the governor’s race, but possibly from politics altogether. This not only leaves Democrats without a gubernatorial candidate — it also indicates that the scandal is truly serious for Democrats who oversaw the fraud.

Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) is reportedly eyeing the Democrats’ now-vacated governor race. If she runs, that will open up her second senate seat — this year if she resigns from the Senate to run, or afterward if she wins. That means Democrats may have two Senate seats to defend, even as this scandal’s details are being unearthed. Sen. Tina Smith (D) has already announced her intention to not seek reelection in 2026.  

If the scandal were not already forefront enough in Minnesota voters’ minds, and Flanagan not tied closely enough to it, her pose in a hijab is an attack ad waiting to happen as she runs for Smith’s open Senate seat this year. 

Democrats may struggle to find candidates for a governor’s race and two open senate seats at a moment when scandal has already depleted their bench.

Down the 2026 ballot, expect there to be questions about the dramatic spike in Omar’s reported wealth after her March 2020 marriage. Within months, Omar went from denying “the ridiculous claim I am worth millions of dollars which is categorically false” to reporting it was as high as $30 million.

For those watching closely, Minnesota has been teetering, showing signs of moving in the direction of neighboring Michigan and Wisconsin, formerly so-called “blue wall” states. Will the unfolding scandal be enough to do the trick in some of Minnesota’s many upcoming races?

Nationally, Democrats cannot afford to lose either of Minnesota’s U.S. Senate seats, given that they are a 45-53 minority. They also cannot afford to lose Minnesota’s 10 electoral votes in 2028.

Having lost the presidency 226-312 in 2024, Democrats start the 2028 race needing 44 additional electoral votes. Needing to find 54 additional electoral votes would become an almost insurmountable task. Outside of the seven swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) that Trump swept in 2024, Democrats are not within 10 percentage points of Republicans in any red states.

Could ICE’s Jan. 7 shooting of Renee Good have an electoral impact? Certainly — particularly as investigations, as House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) called for, occur. However, this is not a repeat of Floyd’s 2020 death. Floyd’s death was the issue. Good’s death is superimposed over enormous fraud and illegal immigration, neither of which are going away. 

What is clear is that Minnesota’s payment fraud has been truly massive over the years. What remains to be determined is how massive and whether it will have national implications.  

J.T. Young is the author of the recent book, “Unprecedented Assault: How Big Government Unleashed America’s Socialist Left” from RealClear Publishing. Follow him on Substack.