Newsom leans into shutdown fight as he cements 2028 front-runner status

thehill.com

California Gov. Gavin Newsom is seizing on a shutdown deal that has angered Democrats to bolster his standing as his party’s front-runner for the White House in 2028. 

Democrats have largely greeted the coming end to the shutdown with anger, and Newsom has once again stepped into the void while his party has craved a fighter to take on President Trump. As he basks in the victory of California’s Proposition 50, which Newsom led to counter Republican redistricting efforts in Texas, the governor is the clear No. 1 contender right now to win the party’s nomination. 

It’s not even close. 

In more than a dozen interviews, Democrats — from strategists to donors — say that with the Proposition 50 fight in particular, Newsom underscored that he could pick a fight with Republicans and win. “And he may be the only national Democrat at this moment who can,” Democratic strategist Christy Setzer said. 

“Just compare and contrast him to Senate Democrats caving on the shutdown, to the base’s absolute fury,” Setzer said, adding that while 2028 is still a long way’s away, “Democrats are looking for a fighter, and Newsom just showed he’s a very effective one.” 

“Gavin Newsom is winning,” Democratic strategist Jamal Simmons said. “He’s not just talking about taking on Donald Trump. He took on Donald Trump and won a resounding victory. And winning is a big step to gathering momentum. 

“He’s dominating the field,” Simmons added, referring to other potential 2028 candidates. “No one else is even in his league.” 

In recent months, Newsom has adopted a more combative posture, mirroring the president’s tactics in speeches, online and on social media. After Proposition 50 was approved by voters, Newsom took a victory lap in Texas alongside Democratic lawmakers. He even coined a new name for Trump: “The Nodfather.”

Newsom saw another opportunity on Sunday following the proposed shutdown deal, quickly seizing on Democrats’ outrage and calling it “pathetic.” 

On Monday, while speaking at COP30, the annual global climate conference, he continued to blast lawmakers in his party, saying they had “rolled over” just days after Democrats won significant races across the country. In an interview with The Associated Press on the sidelines of the conference, he added that he was “stunned” by the decision.

“I thought our immune system was woken up last Tuesday with the American elections,” Newsom said of the Election Day victories. “I worry now, though, that some of my colleagues and friends in the United States Senate, some of my Democratic colleagues, just decided that we’re playing by the old set of rules, not the new set of rules, and may have rolled over a little bit.”

Newsom hasn’t been secretive about his political ambitions. In an interview last month with “CBS News Sunday Morning,” the governor said he would decide whether to run for president sometime late next year after the midterms. 

“Yeah, I’d be lying otherwise,” Newsom said after he was asked whether he would consider running.

Newsom is certain to face a large field of competitors. Former Vice President Kamala Harris, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg are all among the possible contenders for the Democratic nomination. 

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) is also said to be exploring a run for a Senate seat or the presidency. And there are some strategists who are convinced she could win a Democratic nomination — even if a general election bid could pose more of a challenge. 

“If the election were held today, I could definitely see a scenario where she easily wraps up the primary,” one Democratic strategist said. “She is popular with the base and has an unbelievable donor network that far surpasses most.”  

An Emerson poll out in late August showed Newsom well ahead of his would-be competitors, with the governor receiving 25 percent of the support of those surveyed. Buttigieg came in second with 16 percent, while Harris came in third with 11 percent. 

Democrats expect Newsom’s popularity in the poll to only grow after his success in California last week. 

“Californians don’t always vote in big numbers during these smaller elections and the fact that he was able to build support so quickly, in 10 weeks, is notable,” Democratic strategist Joel Payne said. “Democrats right now are looking for political strategy, political salience, and political skill and Prop. 50 checked all of those boxes, and it’s going to be something that catches the attention of the public and the political chattering class.” 

More than anything, Newsom’s allies say the governor is seen as the politician Democrats look to as Trump’s most persistent antagonist. 

“After the overwhelming passage of Prop. 50, Newsom is in the enviable position of being widely viewed not only as Trump’s chief nemesis, but as the only Democrat who has taken decisive action to enhance the party’s chances of taking back the House next year,” said Garry South, a Democratic strategist who is based in California and has worked for Newsom. “There may be other Democratic governors thinking of running for president in ’28, but none can make either of those claims.” 

Put more simply, Simmons said, Newsom “gets the assignment.” 

“He understands the terrain that candidates have to compete in in this political environment,” he said.

“This isn’t about policy as it is about the profile of a candidate. And his presentation is about toughness, aggressiveness and confidence and that’s attractive as a leader.”