Politico Claims JD Vance Talks Too Much

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According to Politico, Vice President “JD Vance has an Israel problem.”

The vice president’s pugnacious defense of a ceasefire agreement with Iran that rattled Israeli diplomats — and his tough talk on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government — has damaged his standing with some pro-Israel GOP donors who have backed the party under President Donald Trump… “There’s angst among a significant majority of pro-Israel Republicans, Christians and Jews alike,” said the donor. “Overwhelmingly, I’m seeing unease, and it could be even worse than that.”

Of course, it’s very important to remember that Politico has its own biases. Politico is a hard-left MSM organ that hates Donald Trump, JD Vance, and MAGA. It also hates Israel. So, this report is a major positive for them, as it enables them to pound all sides and sow division among their enemies.

Nevertheless, it is also a good article for me to use as a jumping-off point to discuss the 2028 Republican presidential nomination.

Vice President JD Vance is almost certainly running for president. If he runs, he is the clear favorite for the nomination. But there are no guarantees in politics, as 2016 showed. And as former Vice President Mike Pence can attest, Vance can’t be secure about backing from President Trump.

As I have written before, a good comparison for the 2028 GOP primary race is the 1988 GOP presidential race. That was the last time that a Republican vice president sought to follow his two-term president into the White House.

Let's look at the polling landscapes, where the two vice presidents are almost identical. In July of 1986, Gallup showed that Vice President George H. W. Bush had 41 percent support, while then-Senate GOP leader Bob Dole had 8 percent, then-Congressman Jack Kemp had 3 percent, and religious journalist Pat Robertson had 6 percent. Today, the RCP average has Vice President Vance at 40.3 percent support, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 20 percent, Donald Trump Jr. at 14 percent, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 7.1 percent, and Texas Senator Ted Cruz at 3.3 percent.

For unknown reasons, the media persists in measuring Don Jr., who has explicitly said he is not running and supports Vance.

Of course, there are some substantial differences between the two vice presidents. In 1988, Bush was a two-term vice president, who had been the runner-up in the 1980 presidential race, and who also had had an extensive political career. Bush was a member of the establishment faction of the GOP, but as vice president to President Reagan, he had the silent-but-important support of his president and, therefore, had a strong appeal to the conservative Republican faction. Those two factions were the most powerful, with the others being the social conservatives, the liberal Republicans, and a tiny libertarian group led by Ron Paul.

Vance is a one-term vice president who was barely known before being selected by Donald Trump. Importantly, he belongs to the restrainer faction of the GOP, which is the smallest group of Republicans, behind the establishment faction, the conservatives, and the MAGA hawks. And the restrainers are themselves further divided into the MAGA doves and the libertarians, led by Rand Paul.

The only real major advantage Vance has over Bush is that Vance is a charismatic candidate who is an excellent speaker, unlike the more tongue-tied Bush.

But, sometimes, well-spoken politicians may talk too much.

JD Vance's Response to Trump Dropping Cornyn Like a Hot Rock Is Really a Message From the Voters

Which brings us back to the Politico article, which reports that Vice President Vance has developed a major problem with pro-Israel Republicans because of his “tough talk” about Israel and Jewish issues. Apparently, the leading concern comes from when Vice President Vance took a student’s question at a Turning Point event. The student:

asked why the U.S. supports Israel when “not only does their religion not agree with ours but also openly supports the prosecution [sic] of ours.” Vance made no effort to correct the student’s characterization of the Jewish religion as being hostile to Christianity. “When I talk to people in the pro-Israel space about Vance, the Turning Point event comes up in almost every conversation,” said one longtime GOP strategist and activist in the pro-Israel camp, granted anonymity to speak openly.

Further, Vance’s issue with the pro-Israel types is exacerbated by his close connection to Tucker Carlson, who has spun off into insanity, Trump hatred, and actual antisemitism.

But the vice president’s rhetorical disputes are not limited to one issue. Vance, as a restrainer, has verbally jousted with those Republicans who are foreign policy hawks on the issue of Ukraine, who do not necessarily overlap with the pro-Israel types. Vance has had additional disputes with the Republican internationalists. And recently, his comments on conservative economist Milton Friedman prompted a “warning shot” column from a prominent economic conservative.

Making things worse, as the Politico article explores, JD Vance is rhetorically tangling with the GOP factions that raise the most money. Most GOP fundraisers are establishment types, and the second biggest group is the economic conservatives. Pro-Israel fundraisers are a subset of the establishment faction.

My wife’s favorite philosopher, Sun Tzu, once wrote, “To win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of skill. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill.” Vice President Vance doesn’t want to entice a strong challenger into the 2028 Republican nomination fight. He wants to win without any battle. Any talk could jeopardize his presidential strategy, which should be to hug President Trump tightly, so as not to jeopardize the president’s support, which should keep Vance in good favor with the MAGA faction. Then he must find a way to appeal to establishment types and/or conservatives in the GOP coalition, especially to their big donors. If no establishment types announce for president – a big if – then the "kindler, gentler” Vance might be able to charm them over Sen. Cruz, who has his own weaknesses with that faction. While doing all this, Vance must keep the loyalty of the ideologically diverse restrainers and somehow extricate himself from the Tucker Carlson situation.”

But that is just my opinion. "We'll (Just Have to) See What Happens."

And now, all this talk of talk reminds me of this:

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