12 Days That Shook the World
Wars have a nasty habit of changing things — little stuff, big stuff, stuff that needs changing, stuff that would be better left alone. Once the bombs start dropping and bullets fly, all bets are off, and what was previously a certainty dissolves into a puddle of ambivalence.
On June 13, Israel launched a "shock and awe" attack on Iran's nuclear facilities while, at the same time, putting a massive hole in its military order of battle. Dozens of officers were killed, as well as many nuclear scientists, in a total and complete decapitation of the Iranian military nuclear program.
By the time Donald Trump announced the ceasefire on June 24, the terror-stricken remaining Iranian leaders were ready to give up. We don't have all the details yet, but when we learn the full story of the assault, we're likely to be even more awed at Israel's military prowess than we are now.
No one knows precisely what effect the war between Israel and Iran will have on the Middle East. All we know is that its impact will be significant and probably earth-shattering.
Iran isn't a threat to anyone, at least at the moment. This has opened the door to the possibility that Saudi Arabia could join the historic Abraham Accords, uniting Israel and the Kingdom in a tacit alliance against Iran. With the United States as guarantor, the U.S.-Saudi-Israel axis is set to dominate the Middle East.
If it comes to pass.
Other nations may choose to join the Abraham Accords as well. Thus, the world will be turned upside down. Israel, the former pariah state among Arabs, will make common cause against a common enemy.
It's not going to happen right away. First, Israel must dispose of the stubborn resistance by the Hamas terrorists. Here, too, fallout from the war between Israel and Iran may play a role.
The Palestinian people may finally be losing patience with Hamas.
Not only would a ceasefire offer respite to weary Gazans, who are growing increasingly critical of Hamas, but it would also allow the Islamist group to crush rogue elements, including some clans and looters who have been stealing aid, the person said.
To counter the immediate threat, Hamas has sent some of its top fighters to kill one rebellious leader, Yasser Abu Shabab, but so far he has remained beyond their reach in the Rafah area held by Israeli troops, according to two Hamas sources and two other sources familiar with the situation.
Reuters spoke to 16 sources including people close to Hamas, Israeli security sources and diplomats who painted a picture of a severely weakened group, retaining some sway and operational capacity in Gaza despite its setbacks, but facing stiff challenges.
The Hamas war has turned into a sideshow. The main event is Trump's attempts to jump-start negotiations for the Abraham Accords and reorder the Middle East.
Kuwait University's Bader al-Saif, an expert on the Persian Gulf, says, "Everything is in flux."
“One of the president’s key objectives is that the Abraham Accords be expanded, that more countries come into it, and we are working on that,” special envoy Steve Witkoff said Wednesday on CNBC. “We’re hoping for normalization across an array of countries that maybe people would have never contemplated would come in.”
Witkoff is Trump's "Mr. Fixit" in the Middle East and Ukraine. Will he be able to pull a rabbit out of a hat and get the Saudis on board with the Abraham Accords?
But there remain significant obstacles to moving forward with normalization in the Gulf. The Saudis have made it clear they won’t do a deal while the war continues unresolved in the Gaza Strip, where more than 56,000 people have been killed so far, according to Palestinian authorities who don’t say how many were combatants.
Saudi Arabia is also insisting on a credible pathway to a Palestinian state—something Israel firmly rejects—in hopes of addressing what it sees as the root of the conflict.
“It’s going to take a lot of work, and the space isn’t there now,” a Saudi official said about establishing diplomatic relations with Israel. “The urgency is the state of Palestine and not the Iranian risk.”
The Saudis hedged their bets with Iran in 2023, reaching a minor deal with Iran more symbolic than substantive. But it points to the Saudis' strategic ambivalence with moving closer to Israel.
Also for our VIPs: Whatever Happened to World War III After We Bombed Iran?
We can't know what the region will look like when all the dust settles. The only thing we can be sure of is that it will look very different from what it does today.