Tensions in the Middle East jumped overnight following claims that Iran violated a ceasefire agreement with Israel. Just hours after the deadline set by President Trump, Israel’s Defense Forces (IDF) launched high-intensity strikes targeting regime sites in Tehran. The strikes followed missile launches from Iran into northern Israel, sparking a fast-moving and dangerous situation. With President Trump heading to a key NATO summit, the conflict’s timing raises fresh questions for global security and US diplomatic strategy.

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What Happened: A Timeline of the Ceasefire Violation

Israel accused Iran of launching missiles into its northern territory shortly after a midnight ceasefire deadline. The ceasefire, negotiated with President Trump’s involvement, was meant to cool down weeks of fighting. Instead, it unraveled in a matter of hours.

Midnight Ceasefire: Both sides agreed to halt hostilities by midnight, local time, under a deal pushed by the US.

Missile Strikes from Iran: Missiles were reported launched from Iran into northern Israel right after the deadline.

Israeli Response: The IDF retaliated with high-intensity strikes against regime targets in Tehran.

Denials and Confusion: Iranian state TV denied that their military was responsible, sparking questions about who actually launched the attack.

This all happened less than an hour before President Trump was set to depart for a major NATO summit, underlining the global stakes and urgent diplomatic fallout.

Fox News correspondent Mike Tobin reported from Beva, northern Israel, right at an impact site. Rescue teams rushed to the area, worried people might be trapped beneath the rubble.

As the rockets came in, Israeli fighter jets were already airborne over Iran. They tracked the source of the missile launches and struck back, hitting at least some of the launchers.

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The situation remains unstable, with both sides watching the other’s next move.

Iranian state TV and government sources quickly denied that their military launched the missiles. This denial fuels debate about what really happened, and why.

Possible Scenarios

Iran’s own military launched the missiles, directly breaking the ceasefire.

A rogue element inside Iran acted without official approval.

One of Iran’s proxy groups (Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis) launched the attack, though they’ve been strangely quiet during this conflict.

Mike Tobin pointed out that these proxies hadn’t attacked during the previous 12 days of fighting. That makes their sudden involvement now seem unlikely—but not impossible.

Former deputy national security adviser Victoria Coates joined the Fox & Friends First team to break down the crisis.

Coates explained that messy incidents often flare up around ceasefires, especially from the side that’s taken more losses. These strikes, she said, often serve as a way for leaders to show their own people they’re still fighting.

“We have to be mindful of the seriousness of this,” Coates stressed, not wanting to call the deaths a “hiccup.” She believes the real tragedy comes from missiles hitting families in apartment shelters—or any civilian targets.

Coates also credited President Trump with getting both sides to the table. She noted that, despite the violence, it’s still possible for calm to return. But a key factor will be Israel’s retaliatory response.

“If Israel takes a proportional strike and the situation cools, the ceasefire could recover,” she said.

Coates highlighted Israel’s strong air power and suggested Israel might focus on taking out missile launchers to prevent another attack. She described both Israel and the US as able to act with little immediate consequence if Iran continues to provoke.

“It’s up to Iran to become a responsible partner,” Coates explained, adding that the US has given Iran several chances to choose diplomacy over aggression.

With Trump preparing to attend the NATO summit, the timing of this escalation couldn’t have been worse. Coates expects President Trump to send a decisive message:

At NATO, President Trump is expected to demand other members increase military spending and share more of the burden.

Was this strike a move to embarrass President Trump before he arrived at the summit?

Coates said it’s hard to know if the timing was meant to target US leadership. Either way, if Iran intended to embarrass the US or Israel, Coates called it a miscalculation.

The period around ceasefires often sees bold and risky moves—sometimes called “gray zone” tactics—by those hoping to shift the balance or send a message. Coates warned that such actions put any progress at risk, as both Israel and the US could quickly resume hostilities.

The situation between Israel and Iran remains fragile, with both sides trying to balance retaliation and restraint. The tragic loss of civilian life serves as a sobering reminder of the stakes. With global eyes on the region and world leaders gathering at NATO, what happens next could set the tone for the region’s security—and America’s role on the world stage—in the coming months.

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