Iran’s government is unlikely to feel significant impact or soften its negotiating position as a result of new rounds of U.S. military strikes like those now underway, according to a new intelligence assessment described by current and former U.S. officials.

Analysts at American spy agencies also have concluded that Tehran and Washington are, for now, stuck in an indefinite limbo between peace and war, the officials said — an uneasy dynamic given the increasingly deadly nature of the tit-for-tat hostilities between the two nations. The current and former officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the assessments because of their sensitivity.

The findings, which have been briefed to the administration, appear to underscore the dilemma President Donald Trump faces in a war that he and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu began in late February.
Trump’s current course of ever-expanding attacks appears to have led to a stalemate. But with the war deeply unpopular at home, continuing escalation by the United States, such as the possible introduction of ground troops, poses political risks for the president with no guarantee of military success.

The U.S. military said last weekend that two American service members were killed in an Iranian attack on an air base in Jordan on Friday, as hostilities resumed following the collapse of last month’s ceasefire between Washington and Tehran. U.S. Central Command, in charge of operations in the region, said Monday it had launched fresh strikes, this time in what Trump said was retaliation for the troops’ deaths. It was the ninth consecutive night the U.S. military has bombed Iran; Centcom announced Monday afternoon that it had begun a 10th wave of attacks.

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