Sergey Karaganov is one of Russia’s most prominent political scientists and a founding member of the Valdai Discussion Club, which Vladimir Putin has attended regularly for more than two decades. In a recent report, subtitled “The Ideological Foundations of Russia as a Civilizational State,” Karaganov lays out his argument for introducing a state ideology and indoctrinating Russians from childhood in a new “Citizen’s Code.” He describes Russia as an “Asian-style empire,” best governed through a “leadership democracy” with autocratic features, and Russians as a “God-bearing people” capable of saving humanity from the “cult of consumerism.” At the heart of Karaganov’s Russian ideology is devotion to the state and its leader. Meduza special correspondent Andrey Pertsev explores what Russia might become if decision-makers embraced this vision.

In mid-July 2025, the Higher School of Economics and the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy published a report authored by Sergey Karaganov, titled Russia’s Living Dream-Idea: The Russian Citizen’s Code for the 21st Century. Senior state officials, including Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, frequently participate in the Council’s events, and President Vladimir Putin has publicly endorsed its research, noting that state agencies and academic institutions often draw on its work.

Through his involvement in the Valdai Discussion Club, Sergey Karaganov has established a personal relationship with the Russian president. He sits on the academic advisory board of Russia’s Security Council and serves as the academic director of the World Economy and International Affairs Department at the Higher School of Economics. In 2023, Karaganov published an article proposing a preemptive tactical nuclear strike on a NATO member, such as Poland. Shortly afterward, he was invited to moderate the main plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, at which Putin appeared.

At the heart of Karaganov’s new report is a clear assertion: Russia needs a national ideology. “We need a guide — a star to follow together,” he writes in the opening pages. This forward-looking ideology should be backed by the state. It should be instilled in children through textbooks, discussions, and cultural channels such as literature and the arts. Without a unifying idea, Karaganov warns, the nation and its people face inevitable stagnation and eventual decline.

Russia’s constitution explicitly prohibits state ideology. Article 13 asserts that “no ideology may be established as official or mandatory.” Amending this provision would require a Constitutional Assembly and a referendum on a new constitution. Aware of the political hurdles, Karaganov proposes a workaround. Rather than rewriting the law, he argues, the government could simply rebrand a state ideology as a “living dream for the country” and frame its contents as a “Code of the Russian People.”

Karaganov’s report describes Russia as a “civilizational state,” echoing a term already in use among political insiders close to Sergey Kiriyenko, who heads the Kremlin’s domestic policy team. These include Andrey Polosin, who designed the mandatory ideological curriculum for first-year university students, and Alexander Kharichev, the Kremlin’s chief of social monitoring.

The concept of a “civilizational state” is rooted in a broader historical school of thought that views human history as cycles of civilizations, each undergoing birth, growth, decline, and eventual death. Western philosophers such as Oswald Spengler and Arnold Toynbee developed this approach, as did Russian intellectual Lev Gumilev, whose ideas have resonated with Putin. The president has often described Russia as a “civilization on the march,” positioning it in direct contrast to a declining West.

Karaganov goes further than his fellow ideologues. He casts Russia as an “Asian empire,” in the company of China and India, and argues that classical electoral democracy is harmful to Russia’s political system:

Democracies throughout history have always collapsed, only to be reborn elsewhere and collapse again. Very often, they have perished together with the country itself. Democracy is ineffective as a form of governance for complex societies. It can exist only under favorable external conditions, in the absence of external threats and powerful rivals. Moreover, contrary to popular belief, it does not ensure rule by the people. In democracies, voters choose their equals, not their betters.

According to Karaganov, Russia’s optimal governance model is “strong leadership democracy,” supported by a “powerful leader” and backed by a strong and patriotic meritocratic elite. In the report, Karaganov refers to “rule by the worthy” and describes a governance system based on individual merit, though he never explains how such people would be selected. Drawing on a term popularized by Slavophiles and later adopted in anti-Semitic contexts, Karaganov characterizes Russians as a “God-bearing people” with a mission to protect “the best in humanity, world peace, freedom for all countries and peoples, and their diversity, variety, and multiculturalism.”

Karaganov gives Russians another characterization: they are a “warrior people who have historically defended themselves and others.” But he’s quick to add that Russians are peace-loving because they know “the bloody price of war.”

Karaganov criticizes Westerners for “individualism” and a “cult of consumerism” that he claims is imposed by “globalist elites”:

The achievements of modern civilization seem magnificent. And in many ways, they are. But they objectively deprive people of their inherent humanity. People no longer need to know how to count, no longer need to read a map, no longer need to fight hunger. They don’t need children or family — the foundation of human society. In the past, families were needed so children would care for their parents in old age. Many no longer need land or a homeland. Computers, information streams, and now artificial intelligence, when used mindlessly, destroy the ability to think and read complex texts. Ubiquitous pornography replaces love for many people.

In Karaganov’s view, Russia can oppose this “cult” with the “sobornost” (collectivism) its citizens who serve “the people, the country, the state, its embodiment — the leader — and God, if a person believes in him.”

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In his report, Karaganov offers only an “outline” of the Citizen’s Code he proposes:

For us, the highest values are honor, dignity, conscience, love of the Fatherland, love between man and woman, love for children, and respect for elders.

We are a God-bearing people. We are a people with a mission, but not a messiah people.

We believe in collectivism, which we call sobornost. A person can only be fulfilled and free through service to the common cause.

We are open to all religions that serve the noble aspects of humanity and call for service to family, Motherland, and state.

We are a people of warriors and victors. A liberator people against all who try to become hegemons, to dominate and oppress other peoples. But service to our Fatherland and state is our highest duty.

The state we aim to build is a leadership democracy with strong local governance and a leader subject to replacement, confirmed by popular choice.

Economically, we are building people’s capitalism, where property is inviolable but conspicuous consumption is shameful.

Karaganov blames “imposed Marxist-Leninist groupthink” for the USSR’s “defeat,” but he paradoxically advocates “promoting” and “imposing” the Citizen’s Code in schools as early as kindergarten. And he wants the Kremlin’s political advisors to oversee the process.

The final version of Russia’s ideology, or “Code,” should be developed by a “worldview policy office,” which Karaganov suggests establishing as a separate entity or within the presidential administration or the National Security Council. A “trusted presidential aide” should be tapped to lead the new office (though Karaganov doesn’t say who).

Karaganov’s reasoning aligns with proposals from the Kremlin’s domestic policy team. For example, in a recent article titled Civilization “Russia,” Alexander Kharichev contends that Russians value spiritual principles over material wealth and see “service” as the “highest form of self-realization.”

A source close to the presidential administration told Meduza that the Kremlin’s domestic policy team, headed by Sergey Kiriyenko, does not “closely collaborate” with Sergey Karaganov on ideological matters. However, both Karaganov and the editor of his report, political scientist Fyodor Lukyanov, “have their own channels” to convey their ideas to Russia’s senior leadership.

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Story by Andrey Pertsev

Translation by Kevin Rothrock