The government’s official report on economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 won’t come out for another six weeks. But a preview should be a cause for celebration for everyone who isn’t a Democratic politician.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta keeps a running tab on the economy, using economic data as it comes in to produce an ongoing forecast for GDP growth as the quarter unfolds – which it calls GDPNow.

The number usually bounces around a little as that data come in, and the final number is usually very close to the official government report that comes out several weeks after the quarter ends.

But yesterday saw something unusual.

On Thursday, the GDPNow estimate doubled.

“The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth … in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 5.4% on January 8, up from 2.7% on January 5,” it says.

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

The Atlanta Fed attributes the jump to recent data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the Census Bureau, and the Institute for Supply Management.

To be sure, the GDPNow figure will be revised again, and could fall as more numbers come in. But if this one turns out to be accurate, it would mean the third consecutive quarter of increasing GDP growth under President Donald Trump. That’s a far cry from the calamity his critics have been – and still are – predicting. As the GDPNow chart shows, the Blue Chip consensus forecast for Q4 was below 1%.

But things like this seem to keep happening. The economy keeps “unexpectedly” doing better than the experts predicted. The third quarter GDP number came in well above expectations. Job growth in November beat expectations. Inflation keeps coming in below expert forecasts. Etc.

RELATED: “Yes, Democrats, Trump Does Own This Economy“

This is good news, unless you are a Democrat. That party has built its case for support entirely on the claim that Donald Trump is a dangerous threat to the country, that his policies are bringing economic ruin, and that if they just say “affordability crisis” over and over again, voters will put them back in charge.

But what if the economy continues to surge forward this year? We hope it does, not just because we want Republicans to retain control of Congress after the November midterms, but because it will benefit every American who’s struggled under the weight of Obamanomics and Bidenomics.

— Written by the I&I Editorial Board

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