A long-running cross-border water dispute has again erupted into a political and agricultural emergency, with President Donald Trump warning that Mexico’s continued failure to meet its obligations under a 1944 treaty is pushing Texas farmers to the brink.

According to Fox News, in a sharply worded message posted Monday on Truth Social, Trump said Mexico has fallen dangerously behind on the water deliveries it owes the United States — and he signaled he is prepared to impose a 5% tariff if the situation is not corrected immediately.

Trump said Mexico must release 200,000 acre-feet of water by Dec. 31 to avoid trade penalties. He also accused the country of withholding far more than that over the past five years.

“Mexico continues to violate our comprehensive Water Treaty, and this violation is seriously hurting our BEAUTIFUL TEXAS CROPS AND LIVESTOCK,” he wrote. “Mexico still owes the U.S over 800,000 acre-feet of water for failing to comply with our Treaty over the past five years.”

He warned that the clock is now running out.

“The U.S needs Mexico to release 200,000 acre-feet of water before December 31st, and the rest must come soon after,” Trump said. “As of now, Mexico is not responding, and it is very unfair to our U.S. Farmers who deserve this much needed water. That is why I have authorized documentation to impose a 5% Tariff on Mexico if this water isn’t released, IMMEDIATELY.”

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He added that every delay “hurts” Texas, declaring: “Mexico has an obligation to FIX THIS NOW.”

Texas growers have been sounding the alarm for months. Citrus, sugar, and other crops in the Rio Grande Valley have suffered repeated blows as the U.S. and Mexico struggle to resolve shortfalls tied to drought and inconsistent deliveries under the 80-year-old treaty.

The standoff briefly eased in April, when the Trump administration secured a deal requiring Mexico to increase water releases from several Rio Grande tributaries and tap international reservoirs to help close the gap. 

U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins hailed that agreement as an important win for Texas producers who depend on consistent irrigation.

But under the treaty, Mexico is required to deliver 1.75 million acre-feet of water every five years — and shortfalls have become a recurring problem. When Mexico fails to meet its target, farms across South Texas suffer. Crops die, jobs are lost, and entire communities absorb the economic fallout.

With the end of the current five-year cycle approaching, Trump’s ultimatum signals a new escalation. Whether Mexico will comply — or risk a tariff fight — could determine the fate of farmers already working with dwindling supplies and dwindling time.