Five Chaotic Gubernatorial Races To Watch In The New Year

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Daily Caller News Foundation

While the 2026 midterm elections have garnered widespread media attention for the fierce battle to control both houses of Congress, voters in three dozen states will also head to the polls to elect governors.

Of the 36 governor’s mansions up for grabs in the midterms, half are controlled by Democrats and half by Republicans. With more than 10 months to go before Election Day, primary season is already in full swing, and several gubernatorial races across the country have been marked by unpredictability and drawn significant attention.

Florida

Incumbent Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who won reelection by nearly 20 percentage points in 2022, is term limited and cannot run for a third consecutive time — paving the way for a contested GOP primary to succeed him.

Long-regarded as a hotly-contested swing state, Florida is now a Republican stronghold that Trump carried by 13 points in 2024. Therefore, it is widely believed that the candidate that emerges as the party’s nominee for the governor’s mansion following the Aug. 18, 2026 primary will win the November general election. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the Sunshine State’s contest as “Solid R.”

Trump had endorsed Florida Republican Rep. Byron Donalds for governor in February — five days before Donalds entered the race — cementing the 47-year-old congressman as the race’s early odds-on frontrunner. In addition to the president, Donalds also has received the support of Republican Florida Sen. Rick Scott, a handful of his congressional colleagues, multiple members of Trump’s cabinet and billionaire Elon Musk.

DeSantis, however, has yet to make an endorsement and may still back another GOP primary candidate. An anonymous source familiar with Florida politics told the Daily Caller in November that the state’s sitting governor is “point-blank trashing” Donalds to donors. Donalds, along with the vast majority of Florida’s congressional Republicans, notably endorsed Trump over DeSantis in the 2024 Republican presidential primary.

Republican Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, a key DeSantis ally whom the governor appointed to the state’s No. 2 job in August, has signaled that he is open to entering the gubernatorial race but has also yet to either declare his candidacy or decline to run.

Early in 2025, observers speculated that DeSantis’ wife Casey DeSantis may run to succeed her husband, but such talk has subsided. Mrs. DeSantis has yet to state her intention either way.

Donalds’ only current primary challenger to have held electoral office is former Florida state House Speaker Paul Renner, a self-styled “pro-Trump, pro-DeSantis Republican.” Despite this, DeSantis has come out in vocal opposition to Renner’s longshot campaign, calling his former legislative ally’s decision to run “ill-advised.”

Also in the GOP primary race is James Fishback, the 30-year-old CEO of investment firm Azoria Partners and a vocal critic of H-1B visas, who is campaigning to Donalds’ right. Fishback in February came under scrutiny after proposing the viral idea that Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) send $5,000 dividend checks to households using money saved by the initiative.

Stopping short of entering the race, Collins in a Nov. 20 X post took a dig at Donalds writing, “In my first 100 days as Lieutenant Governor, I’ve already outperformed the guy in Congress still trying to convince people he’s ready to lead Florida.”

In response to a user asking him to say Donalds’ name, the lieutenant governor replied “H1-Byron,” appearing to repeat a line of attack also used by Fishback to paint the Trump-endorsed candidate as too lenient on the issue of immigration.

Democratic candidates vying to succeed DeSantis include former Republican Florida Rep. David Jolly — a former MSNBC contributor widely associated with the “Never Trump” movement — and Jerry Demings, deep-blue Orange County’s mayor and former sheriff. The Democratic Party has not won Florida’s governor’s mansion since 1994.

Ohio

Similar to Florida, Ohio is a former swing state that is now firmly in the Republican column, with Trump carrying it by double digits in 2024. The Buckeye and Sunshine states are also similar in that Republican Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine, like DeSantis, is term-limited and cannot seek reelection.

However, unlike Donalds, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, the Trump-endorsed candidate seems to have cleared the GOP field, with the Ohio Republican Party opting in May to endorse him. Ramaswamy, who ran against Trump and DeSantis in the 2024 GOP presidential primary, has also received the endorsements of Musk, Vice President JD Vance— a native Ohioan — and both of Ohio’s senators.

Trump originally announced that Ramaswamy would work with Musk to jointly run DOGE, but as the president began his second term, Ramaswamy instead pivoted to running for governor and never ended up joining the initiative.

The businessman currently is the only well-known GOP candidate running for Ohio governor. Republican Ohio Treasurer Robert Sprague and Republican Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost have both in the first half of 2025 dropped out of the GOP gubernatorial primary with the former endorsing Ramaswamy.

On the Democratic side, former Ohio Department of Health director Amy Acton seems poised to win the nomination as Democratic Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan passed on a run and Sherrod Brown announced a bid to return to the upper chamber instead. Acton notably presided over the state’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 — which many critics have slammed as too heavy-handed.

When asked by Daily Caller Senior Editor Amber Duke if she had regretted closing Ohio’s schools in the name of COVID, Acton replied, “No, actually, what we were following was the pandemic playbook.”

Ramaswamy has himself hammered Acton on the issue, writing in a June post to X, “Dr. Amy Acton, the Chief Lockdown Officer of Ohio, led us to be the *first state in the nation* to close our public schools, while private schools remained open. … Acton owes our public school students an apology & shouldn’t come anywhere near the levers of power again.”

However, recent polling shows that despite Ohio’s strong Republican lean, a Democratic upset in what many are saying is shaping up to be a “blue wave” year may just be on the horizon. A December 2025 Emerson College poll found Acton with a one point lead over Ramaswamy, with 46% of support to his 45%. Emerson College’s poll from four months earlier showed Ramaswamy with a 10-point lead over the Democrat, 49% to 39%.

Cook Political report rates the race as “Likely R.”

California

As term-limited Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom likely gears up to mount his highly-anticipated 2028 presidential run, the state has the potential to elect a Republican to succeed him in 2026.

Although California is a heavily Democratic state, its top-two primary could conceivably result in an all-Republican general election matchup if a crowded Democratic field splits the vote, allowing top GOP candidates — Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and former Fox News host Steve Hilton — to finish first and second.

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No clear Democratic frontrunner has emerged, with just six months before voters cast their ballots in the June 2, 2026 all-party primary. Former Vice President Kamala Harris, the party’s failed 2024 presidential nominee, announced in late July that she would not seek the California governorship two years after losing the race for the White House — something Richard Nixon tried and failed to do in 1962.

A handful of well-known Democrats remain in the race to take up Newsom’s mantle including, most notably, former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter — who made headlines for appearing to abuse her staff and for allegedly dumping scalding hot mashed potatoes on her then-husband’s head — and Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell — a prominent Trump foe who announced his candidacy on “Jimmy Kimmel Live” in late November.

Swalwell was absent for more House votes than any one of his current colleagues, according to data analyzed by the New York Post. The Trump administration in November referred the congressman to the Department of Justice for alleged mortgage fraud.

Other Democrats vying to replace Newsom include former Biden-era Secretary of Health and Human Services Xavier Becerra, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer, to name a few.

While multiple recent polls show the possibility of a fiercely split Democratic primary field locking the party out of the general election, Cook Political Report still rates the race “Solid D.”

Bianco told the Daily Caller News Foundation in a December interview that the lack of a Democratic frontrunner shows that the party is in “shambles” and has “no leadership.”

“If you look back in history, there’s always a secession plan. There’s always someone else in line. That’s how Newsom got in there,” Bianco added. “But the problem for them [Democrats] now is Newsom is the biggest narcissist, probably, in the world and, in his eyes, there is no one capable of filling his shoes.”

Arizona 

Meanwhile, California’s neighbor Arizona, the adopted home state of slain Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk, presents the Republicans’ best chance to unseat an incumbent Democratic governor.

Democratic Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs is seeking a second term in office after defeating her Republican opponent by only 17,000 votes in 2022. Hobbs has faced numerous controversies while in office, including a “play-to-pay” campaign finance scandal and her reported lack of transparency about her legal donations.

In addition, the vulnerable governor had a dismal 39% approval rating, compared to a 40% disapproval, according to an Emerson College poll released in mid-November.

Hobbs will take on the winner of what is now a three-way Republican primary, scheduled for Aug. 4, 2026. Cook Political report rates Arizona’s gubernatorial race a “Toss Up.”

The three Republicans currently vying for the GOP nomination to take on Hobbs in the general election are Republican Arizona Rep. Andy Biggs, businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson and Republican Arizona Rep. David Schweikert. Trump has co-endorsed Biggs and Robson while Kirk had solely endorsed Biggs prior to his Sept. 10 assassination. Schweikert entered the race months after both of the other two candidates.

Emerson College’s mid-November poll showed Hobbs trailing the two Trump-endorsed candidates by one point each and Schweikert by four points. Biggs had a massive lead over both of his primary opponents with 50% of support compared to Robson’s 17% and Schweikert’s 8%, according to the same poll.

In an interview with the Daily Caller’s Ashley Brasfield at TPUSA’s AmericaFest in December, Biggs said that he is “acting like I’m the only one that has [Trump’s] endorsement,” highlighting his close relationship with the president.

“Trump and I go back to the first election … he knows I’ve been in the foxholes,” Biggs, who’s been in Congress since 2017, told Brasfield. “I’ve gone through two impeachments with him and about five investigations where I was one of the lead defense counsels, so to speak, for him on all of those. And he knows that. And even know he’ll call me and we’ll talk and we have that relationship ongoing.”

“You can say anybody’s endorsed by you but if you don’t have a relationship with him, it doesn’t really matter,” the GOP frontrunner added.

Michigan

Finally, Michigan proves another prime chance for Republicans to flip a governor’s mansion from blue to red — but this time because of a left-leaning independent candidate who might play spoiler.

Democratic Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, like Newsom, is both a rumored potential 2028 White House candidate and barred from running for a third term due to term limits. Cook Political report rates the race to succeed Whitmer as a “Toss Up.”

The open Democratic primary to succeed the incumbent governor features three main candidates, Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist and Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson. Whitmer has stated she has no plans to endorse any candidate in the primary.

Meanwhile, Republican Michigan Rep. John James is the heavy frontrunner to capture the GOP nomination, with his most prominent intraparty rival being former Republican Michigan Attorney General Mike Cox.

Trump has yet to endorse a candidate in the GOP primary, but has previously endorsed James during his successful runs for the House as well as his unsuccessful runs for U.S. Senate in both 2018 and 2020.

However, the presence of independent Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan — a former lifelong Democrat who left the party in 2024 — on the ballot may swing the race in James’ favor.

A Plymouth Union Public Research poll released in mid-October showed James in the lead with 35% of support among likely voters, compared to 31% of support for a generic Democrat and 12% for Duggan. Similarly, an EPIC-MRA poll released in early November showed 34% of support for James, 33% for Benson and 20% for Duggan.

Duggan blasted his former party in October, telling Politico, “Everything the Democrats have to say is terrible about Republicans.”

“I am waiting for the Democratic Party to step forward and say, ‘Here’s our affordable housing proposal. Here’s our mental health treatment proposal,’” the independent gubernatorial candidate added at the time. “It’s just been so frustrating to watch the Democratic Party lose its way.”

(Featured Image Media Credit: Screenshot/Newsmax)

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