Ukrainian Drones Strike Moscow Oil Refinery

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Earlier this month, President Putin was opening his annual economic forum in his hometown of St. Petersburg when drones struck an oil storage site. That led to awkward scenes of people attending the forum who found themselves just a few miles from a column of black smoke that burned all morning.

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This morning, Putin had another rough start as a series of Ukrainian drones struck targets in Moscow, including the city's largest oil refinery. This site apparently produces about 40% of the gasoline consumed in the city.

With a very few exceptions, the way the last four years has gone in Moscow is that people living there hear about the war in Ukraine on television (from state propagandists) and, so long as they aren't openly critical of the war, it has relatively little impact on their lives. 

That's probably going to change this week. The fire will be put out, but whatever was damaged will not be repairable in a day or two. That could mean gas lines in Moscow like the ones we've already seen in Crimea.

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Even before today's strike, the limits on fuel purchases had recently started having an impact in Moscow and St. Petersburg.

After reports of fuel shortages in occupied Crimea, similar problems have started appearing across Russian regions.

In the Kursk, Belgorod, and Pskov regions, some gas stations are limiting sales to no more than 20 liters of gasoline per customer. Similar restrictions have also been reported at certain stations in Moscow, the Moscow region, and St. Petersburg.

In Krasnoyarsk and the Tomsk region, drivers are being refused fuel sales in jerry cans. In Karelia, authorities blame the restrictions on the holiday season, while residents in the Murmansk region are also reporting difficulties refueling their vehicles.

Drivers in the Voronezh region complain about gasoline shortages at some gas stations, while in the Novgorod region there are reports of a 20-liter limit per vehicle.

In Moscow some stations limit purchases to 20 liters, which is about 5 gallons.

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Again, those restrictions began late last week, before Moscow's main refinery was in flames. So this is not going to get better anytime soon. It's going to have an impact on a lot of people who haven't felt much of an impact in the first four years of this war.

And there's another message here which shouldn't be missed. Moscow is, supposedly, the best defended area in Russia, but these drones flew hundreds of miles from Ukraine and landed at one of the most obvious targets imaginable, a target only about 15 miles from the Kremlin. Where was the drone defense? In all the videos I've seen, I don't hear anything shooting at these drones. They are completely untouched. 

That in itself may say something about Russia's ability to defend itself from these attacks going forward. Today's strike was bad, but there's apparently nothing to stop Ukraine from doing this again tomorrow and the day after until the entire refinery is offline.

Finally, while all of this was happening in Moscow, President Zelensky was in France for a meeting of the G7. Putin was not invited. One of the things being discussed at this table: Sanctions on Russia.

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Trump and Zelensky also spoke privately where Zelensky raised the possibility of seeking out a license to allow Ukraine to produce Patriot missiles domestically.

Even without US help, there appears to be plenty of help for Ukraine in the room. So if Putin is hoping to see a further break in support that might give him an edge, it doesn't seem to be happening.

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