While President Trump has been trying to make progress on a deal to end the war in Ukraine, the US has also been negotiating a mineral rights deal designed to pay the US back for some of the support we've given Ukraine over the past three years since the Russian invasion. Today, both the US and Ukraine say a deal has been reached.

Advertisement

The US and Ukraine have agreed to terms on a deal over natural resources and reconstruction, according to a Ukrainian official.

The source said the terms were agreed after “everything unacceptable was taken out of the text and it is now more clearly spelt out how this agreement will contribute to Ukraine’s security and peace.”...

“I hear that he’s coming on Friday. Certainly it’s okay with me if he’d like to, and he would like to sign it together with me. And I understand that’s a big deal, very big deal,” US President Donald Trump said from the Oval Office on Tuesday.

For the moment it seems no one knows exactly what is in the final deal. All we know is that President Zelensky had rejected a previous version of the deal.

Mr. Zelensky has been pressing for days to finalize any agreement with Mr. Trump in person. But the Ukrainian leader had rejected at least one other draft of an agreement because it lacked specific U.S. security guarantees and because Mr. Trump was requesting mineral rights worth $500 billion, along with other provisions that Ukraine considered unacceptable.

The Ukrainians became more comfortable with the deal in the past few days after the Americans removed some of the more onerous conditions.

While the final terms of the deal are not clear, a draft agreement discussed on Tuesday no longer included the demand that Ukraine contribute $500 billion to a fund owned by the United States. It also did not include a request that Ukraine pay back the United States twice the amount on any future American aid — a demand that Mr. Zelensky had compared to imposing a long-term debt on Ukraine.

Advertisement

Instead, both countries will contribute to a fund based on revenue from rare earth mining and some of that money would go back to Ukraine. 

The exact amount spent supporting Ukraine is obviously relevant since that's the amount Trump is hoping to recoup (at least partially) through this deal. Trump has given his own figure for the amount spent which seems to be about double the actual amount based on congressional appropriations.

Trump said the U.S. has spent $350 billion toward Ukraine, though he has not cited where he's gotten that figure.

Government resources place the amount of aid appropriated by Congress for Ukraine since the war began in 2022 at $174 billion.

The Congressional Research Service backs up the $174 billion figure but the actual total may be a bit more, though not all of it has actually been spent.

Ukraine Oversight, the website of the special inspector general for Operation Atlantic Resolve created years ago to track assistance to Ukraine, states the amount set aside for Ukraine by the U.S. is a bit higher at $182 billion.

That figure includes the $174 billion appropriated by Congress and additional funds allocated from specific agencies. According to the site, $83 billion has been disbursed and another $57 billion obligated, with roughly $40 billion appropriated but not yet obligated.

In any case, $174 or $182 billion is a lot of money but it's worth keeping in mind a lot of that money was actually spent here in the US.

Advertisement

About $58 billion of the $183 billion in total aid for Ukraine was spent in the U.S., going directly toward boosting the U.S. defense industry, either by replacing old U.S. weapons given to Kyiv with new American-made weapons, by procuring new U.S.-made weapons for Kyiv or by making direct industrial investments.

I do wonder where Trump got this figure. Is he just doubling the actual number or is he repeating something he was told or read somewhere? Maybe there's some way to square this circle but so far I don't see anyone making even a guess what that might be. You'll probably be hearing more about all of this later in the week if President Zelensky arrives to sign the deal.