Sunday Smiles

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As tempting as it is to say that we are outright winning the culture war after decades of having to retreat, I'm pretty sure that isn't accurate. 

Instead, I think what is happening is a continuation of the "great sort." The great sort is a way of describing the fact that people are creating their own bubbles, or perhaps you might call them sub-societies, where people with differing ideological preferences congregate with each other and shun interaction with those whom they see as the "other."

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What this means in practical terms varies, depending on how hard national policymakers try to impose uniformity over the country, but in general, you can expect to see increasing polarization between Blue areas and Red areas. Under Trump, Red states have felt liberated to move right on policy issues, and Blue states have continued their push to impose socialist economics and radical social policies. 

Conservatives have rejoiced, seeing some of the alphabet madness retreat, but that retreat is really only happening in limited areas, while alphabet ideology marches on in others. It is true that some major corporations, which have to serve both Red and Blue areas, are pulling back from actual advocacy for alphabet ideology, which is good, but in realms of life where government can impose top-down mandates, such as school sports, bathroom and locker room policies, and employment, Blue states are pushing forward. The schools are still factories for radical ideology, using techniques that UNRWA might applaud, and even in areas where Trump is pushing back, these states and institutions are merely rebranding the efforts to push everything left. 

Conservatives are moving to Red states, and liberals to Blue states. This trend will likely continue, as will the growing polarization of our politics. 

Of course, it's not just alphabet ideology. The immigration debate is now regional as much as it is ideological. In the Blue areas, the left is adopting Confederate tactics to resist federal policies. As conservative states cooperate with the federal government, Blue states are actively, and often illegally, blocking the enforcement of federal agents. 

One unpredictable variable is the courts, which can impose rules that cross geographic lines. I don't know how this will impact the great sorting and how much friction (or resistance) it will cause. I'm not sure. 

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In the 20th century, the media served as a homogenizing force; however, as it moved further to the left, a backlash emerged. The diversification of sources has accelerated this trend. 

All this is disturbing enough, but add in another worry: civil peace is easier to maintain when the economy is thriving. Compared to the rest of the world, the US economy IS thriving, believe it or not. There are industries where innovation drives growth and regulation is relatively light, and those industries are thriving here as nowhere else. 

However, much of the US economy is relatively stagnant, and there is a significant mismatch between the aspirations of the younger workforce and the available job opportunities. Much of this has to do with the fraud sold to people that a generic college education is a ticket to a prosperous future, regardless of one's lack of skills or work ethic. 

Peter Turchin argues that this mismatch can be called an "overproduction of the elites." There are tens of millions of people who expected to climb the economic and social ladder without effort due to their status as the "educated," but who, in fact, either bring little to the table or face unexpected obstacles. 

There are too many aspirants for the elite positions. 

These individuals closely correspond to disaffected liberals, who ally with the social elites because they perceive themselves as being in the same social class, but who are unable to achieve the same level of success. Social elites cater to them with socialist promises, blame conservatives as obstacles to their attaining their rightful status, and stoke the tensions. 

I know a lawyer who became a carpenter. He makes about the same money, has a lot less stress, and is thrilled to have made the transition. He was never going to become a partner at a high-power law firm and figured that out, so he opted for a better life. 

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But most opt for a different direction these days. They prefer to blame others for their disappointment and are becoming socialists. 

Socialists have almost always been disaffected elites. Over- and mis-educated, they stew in a poisonous brew of resentment and decide to take what others make. That's how you get a newly elected mayor saying that being a street performer should guarantee a prosperous life. 

Of course, furries who play the accordion will never be able to live in a warehouse apartment in Seattle when they are competing with Microsoft employees, and they should know that. If they want to be furries who lounge around on the streets, society may tolerate that, but not reward it, and remain viable. 

It's hard to predict how the great sort will shake out, although there is little doubt that the experiment will be performed whether we like it or not. Liberals are correct that much of the high-value-added labor is currently done in Blue areas, which have been able to tolerate a lot of hangers-on because they are so wealthy. 

But there is a limit. The hangers-on used to add a bit of spice to life. It's nice to have buskers on the street as you go to get your cup of specialty coffee, and living in a quaint but bustling city like San Francisco definitely has its charms. But what was tolerance for quirkiness has transformed into unmeetable demands that increasingly make life intolerable for productive people. 

It's one thing to have buskers. It's another to have to endure walking along sidewalks filled with homeless drug addicts who poop in the streets. That is not charming. 

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Some of these businesses can move. Others, not. Apple isn't picking up and moving, that's for sure, and that is a cushion for California. On the other hand, much of Wall Street could pick up and move, and just might over time. Cities like Seattle and Portland have much less economic depth and will likely suffer for quite a while. 

I understand the attraction of living in Boston, New York, or San Francisco. But all of them are trying to kill the goose that laid the golden egg, and the goose is likely to fly elsewhere before they succeed in doing so. 

I predict that the blue regions will become bluer, at least in urban areas. Some Blue states will occasionally elect moderates who promise not to touch social third rails like alphabet issues, but they will probably bleed population to red areas. 

What does this all portend? It's hard to say. 

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