Jonathan Tirone
4 min read
(Bloomberg) -- US President Donald Trump's emerging nuclear accord with Iran risks securing fewer restrictions than the deal negotiated by the administration of Barack Obama — one he derided and later scrapped.
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The potential agreement, set to be negotiated over a 60-day period, will build on a memorandum of understanding that states only that Iran's stockpile of near-bomb-grade uranium be "adequately addressed." That leaves unresolved the fate of enough material to fuel multiple weapons, and underscores the challenge of surpassing the strength of Obama's 2015 accord in preventing a nuclear-armed Iran.
Trump has sent mixed signals this week over the importance of the highly enriched uranium, which he routinely calls "nuclear dust." Speaking at the Group of Seven meeting in France, he wavered on whether gaining access to Iran's stockpile is critical for an end to the war with the Islamic Republic that began on Feb. 28.
"You could make the case 'why are you even bothering?' because it's not really valuable," Trump said during a meeting with Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad in France on Tuesday. "Psychologically we want to get it."
For a war ostensibly fought to prevent Iran developing a nuclear weapon, failing to account for the fuel required to build one would throw the success of the military venture into doubt. International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors haven't verified the state or location of the material since a 12-day US-Israeli bombing campaign in June of last year.
Iran can count other wins in the memorandum of understanding alongside a lack of nuclear restrictions. The US agreed to end all sanctions against the Islamic Republic, including United Nations Security Council resolutions, and release Iran's billions of dollars of frozen funds. Tehran will also have access to $300 billion for "rehabilitation and economic development" and be allowed to resume oil exports.
High Bar
The Iran nuclear agreement of 2015, which Trump abandoned during his first term, set a high bar. That deal — negotiated over two years — limited Iran's stockpile to 300 kilograms of low-enriched uranium, restricted the development of new technologies, dismantled some facilities and gave the IAEA authority to call snap inspections.