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U.S. commercial crude oil inventories have dropped to some of the lowest levels in years, raising alarms about the nation’s energy buffer as the conflict with Iran stretches into its fourth month with no clear end in sight.

Recent weekly data from the Energy Information Administration show commercial inventories declining by roughly 8 million barrels to 434 million barrels — approximately 3% below the five-year average for this time of year. This tightening comes as disruptions from the Middle East war continue to ripple through global supply chains, with major shipping routes affected and heightened uncertainty surrounding future flows.

Inventories serve as critical shock absorbers in the energy market, balancing volatile supply against relatively stable demand. Analysts emphasize that effective stockpiles must hit an ideal “Goldilocks” range — neither excessively high nor perilously low — to cushion against disruptions.

“Currently, you have a buffer getting close to not being a buffer anymore,” one analyst warned, highlighting the shrinking margin for error.

U.S. oil inventories are split between commercial stocks, held by industry players, and the government’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). While commercial levels are drawing scrutiny, the broader picture includes strategic holdings that provide additional context, though the focus remains on the commercial side’s ability to handle ongoing pressures from the Iran war.