Before President Trump, America spent years wringing our collective hands about China and rare earths.  Now, with President Trump’s turbocharging of the Defense Production Act and other tools in the federal toolbox, we are taking action not seen since the Korean War to reduce our dependence on foreign critical minerals.

But while the focus in recent months has been largely on Beijing, another vulnerability has emerged on the near-term radar screen: niobium from Brazil.

Niobium is a little-known but irreplaceable metal. Added in small amounts to steel, it dramatically increases strength and durability while cutting weight—critical for pipelines, bridges, turbines, and automobiles.  Virtually every steel-chassis vehicle on the planet contains niobium.  That’s not surprising given that one pound of niobium added to one ton of steel doubles the steel’s yield strength. (RELATED: Trump Admin Looks To Pour Cash Into Critical Minerals To Break China’s Stranglehold)

In aerospace and defense, niobium enables jet engines and hypersonic missiles to withstand extreme temperatures.  It is vital to every Navy ship and submarine that sails, and every fighter jet and commercial airliner that flies.  It is crucial to the superconducting magnets in MRI scanners and particle accelerators.

The U.S. consumes thousands of tons each year and imports 100 percent of it, overwhelmingly from Brazil.  That gives Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva a card to play that rivals the rare earth card Chinese President Xi recently laid on the table.  Except, in the case of niobium, the stakes are even higher for the U.S.

According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) , Brazil accounted for about 66% of U.S. ferroniobium and niobium metal imports in 2024, with Canada supplying roughly 27–29%. But Canadian supply does not fully insulate the U.S. from Brazilian dominance; Canada has relied, in part, on Brazilian ores or concentrates as recently as 2023, according to international trade data.

As Fox News has reported extensively, China has imposed export restrictions on rare earths as leverage in geopolitical disputes. President Xi Jinping has made clear that Beijing views critical-mineral dominance as a strategic weapon, not just an economic advantage.

It is not hard to imagine President Lula doing the same.  He continues to align Brazil more closely with China and Russia. He bristles at U.S. trade policies, agricultural disputes, and climate disagreements. In a worsening relationship, niobium could become Lula’s pressure point, just as rare earths are for Xi.

Here is the uncomfortable truth: a Brazilian cutoff of niobium would be even more damaging to the U.S. economy and our national security than a Chinese cutoff of rare earths. Rare earths are critical for magnets, electronics, and many systems fielded by the Pentagon.  Niobium, by contrast, is less replaceable and more foundational. Without it, the strength and performance of steel and superalloys collapse—threatening core sectors from construction to defense.

A new USGS analysis estimates that a disruption of Brazilian niobium exports to the U.S. could wipe away more than $10.4 billion per year from our GDP. While USGS assigns a relatively low 3.7% probability that Brazilian exports could be disrupted, it forecasts catastrophic impacts. Even a low-probability risk becomes urgent when the downside is so severe.

The U.S. has virtually no margin of safety. There are only limited supplies of niobium in the National Defense Stockpile.

Recycling is negligible. Substitutes for many applications are expensive or inadequate. If Brazil acts, manufacturers will face soaring prices and crippling delays. Aircraft could be grounded, shipbuilding slowed, infrastructure compromised, and defense readiness undermined. The $10 billion/year GDP hit modeled by USGS is only the opening shock.

The U.S. has limited niobium resources considered economic for extraction except in one state:  Nebraska.  As America’s only primary niobium prospect, the Elk Creek Project will significantly alter the niobium risk equation and provide a partial solution.  (Full disclosure: I serve as the Chairman and CEO of NioCorp Developments, which is developing this project).

Once operational, Elk Creek could produce roughly 7,400 tons of ferroniobium annually for nearly four decades.  That is equivalent to 4,800 tonnes/year of contained niobium, over one-half of total U.S. apparent consumption of 8,400 tonnes.  This single U.S. mine would provide much-needed balance in the niobium supply chain and put a big dent in our import dependence.

Besides getting this initial mine operational as fast as possible, how else can the U.S. dull Brazil’s niobium sword of Damocles?  There are only three operational niobium mines in the world today.  Two are in Brazil, and a smaller mine operates in Canada.  Guess which nation owns 100% of one of the Brazilian mines and holds an equity position in the second?  China.

The only real solution for niobium mirrors what the Trump Administration is doing for rare earths: mine, baby, mine.

The U.S. has already learned hard lessons about overreliance on adversarial suppliers. We cannot afford to repeat them with niobium. The USGS has quantified the risk. The geopolitics are clear. America must not wait for the day when a phone call from Brasília delivers an ultimatum.

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