EXCLUSIVE: Insiders Say Epstein Mess Poses Political Trouble For Trump — But The White House Disagrees

dailycaller.com

President Donald Trump and the White House are downplaying any potential political fallout from failing to release the Epstein Files, but pollsters and strategists tell the Daily Caller that they foresee the issue damaging the president’s brand heading into the 2026 midterm elections.

Late on the Sunday after the Fourth of July, Axios published a leaked memo from the Department of Justice (DOJ) and Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) explaining that their investigation into Epstein had concluded, that there was no client list and that he had not been murdered. The abrupt ending to an issue that had been hyped up by the president’s cabinet angered his base. Trump himself has since called the entire thing a “hoax.”

Pollsters and strategists predict that the back-and-forth will have some negative impact on Trump and Republicans, though some are optimistic for the potential to smooth things over, they said in exclusive interviews with the Caller.

“The large majority of the American public does not track the Epstein case closely, but a significant percentage of Trump’s base does, and President Trump will need that base to be energized in the midterm elections, because historically, those elections are difficult for the party that holds the White House,” Mark R. Weaver, a GOP strategist, told the Caller. 

“President Trump and his attorney general and FBI are going to have to provide more information, be less dismissive and show that they care about the anger people have about the Epstein case if they want the base to be his grassroots army in 2026,” Weaver continued. 

Motivating the base is especially important for Republicans as the new Trump coalition consists of many low- or mid-propensity and first-time voters, who don’t typically show up in non-presidential contests. A Democracy Institute poll of 1500 likely voters between July 11-13 found that “new voters” and “working class voters” were tied in being the most opposed to the Trump administration failing to release an Epstein client list, with 72% in each group disagreeing with the decision. Three-quarters or more of Trump 2024 voters, new voters, and working class voters also believe there is a client list and the administration is covering it up, according to the poll. (RELATED:Why On-And-Off Voters Who Backed Trump May Be GOP’s Midterm Silver Bullet)

With pressure building from the MAGA base, Trump posted on Truth Social on Wednesday to compare the “Epstein Files Hoax” to Russiagate. He proceeded to voice his opinion about his “past supporters” who are frustrated with the controversy.

“[The Democrats’] new SCAM is what we will forever call the Jeffrey Epstein Hoax, and my PAST supporters have bought into this ‘bullshit,’ hook, line, and sinker. They haven’t learned their lesson, and probably never will, even after being conned by the Lunatic Left for 8 long years,” Trump wrote.

“I have had more success in 6 months than perhaps any President in our Country’s history, and all these people want to talk about, with strong prodding by the Fake News and the success starved Dems, is the Jeffrey Epstein Hoax. Let these weaklings continue forward and do the Democrats work, don’t even think about talking of our incredible and unprecedented success, because I don’t want their support anymore! Thank you for your attention to this matter. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!” he concluded.

While the president takes issue with those dissatisfied with the conclusion of the Epstein case, Rasmussen Reports found that a majority of Americans, 56%, don’t believe the FBI and the DOJ are telling the truth about whether Epstein was murdered and whether there is really a client list.

The survey polled 1,164 likely voters over July 8-10 and found that 65% are following the Epstein case somewhat or not very closely. Despite this, 68% of likely voters believe there are still dozens of powerful people in the Epstein case who need to face consequences. Across party lines, 66% of both Democrats and Republicans believe the same. The poll suggests that although the Epstein Files are not top-of-mind for most, voters have strong feelings about them when asked. (RELATED: Epstein Dominates Discussion Among Trump’s Most Loyal Fans At TPUSA Conference)

This data has led Mark Mitchell, the head of polling and operations at Rasmussen Reports, to believe the fallout from the administration’s handling of the files could impact Trump.

“Will it hurt Trump? I think it will probably take away some of this political capital, and the Republicans are already trailing in a generic ballot,” Mitchell told the Caller. “So how’s that going to work in ’26 … it looks like a foregone conclusion.”

One pollster told the Caller that others measuring the impact of the Epstein Files shared that while people are frustrated with the answers they’ve received from the government, it does not have a major impact on their views of the direction the country is headed or Trump. 

Mitchell added that people underestimate the impact of the Epstein case by arguing it doesn’t rank high in voters’ important issues.

“If you put Epstein up against the economy, it’s going to lose, right? But government corruption has always been kind of a third or fourth issue behind border security and the economy,” Mitchell explained to the Caller. 

Despite Trump’s best efforts to downplay the Epstein files, the unanswered questions surrounding the topic continue to linger.

A source close to the White House told the Caller that the White House is obviously paying attention to whatever fallout the Epstein Files could have, but they feel there isn’t much political capital in appeasing a small faction of vocal people on social media that don’t represent the whole MAGA base. 

The source added that the administration is confident the president will continue to be judged on his promises made, promises kept — not the online sentiment of the supposed keyboard warriors.

Internally, administration officials previously admitted to the Caller that they were frustrated with the way the Epstein case was handled. Some officials even expressed confusion over whether the case was really over because there are still sealed documents related to other ongoing legal battles.

Quinnipiac University published a national poll on Wednesday that found 17% of voters approve of the way the Trump administration has been handling the Epstein Files, with 63% disapproving. Republicans are split on the issue, the poll found, with 40% approving of the way the situation has been handled by the Trump administration and 36% disapproving.

Despite the unhappiness, 90% of Republicans still approve of Trump overall, the poll found.

The pollster interviewed 1,290 self-identified registered voters nationwide from July 10-14.

“It is just hard for so many in the MAGA movement to accept that there is no ‘there’ there or that there is nothing to this. What they want is to feel like they’re getting the full story — they might be getting the full story, but they haven’t been convinced of that yet,” Robert Cahaly, founder of polling organization the Trafalgar Group, told the Caller.

“This won’t affect the midterms. It is just a minor red flag, one red flashing light among many other good things. But it is clearly a frustration amongst voters that are generally satisfied,” he added.