Dick Morris, an adviser to President Donald Trump, told Newsmax on Friday that Republicans are positioned to defy midterm history in 2026.

He dismissed an Emerson College survey showing Democrats up 11 points on the generic ballot and pointed instead to a McLaughlin & Associates poll that puts the president's job approval at 49% and the Democrat edge at just 2 points.

Speaking on "Rob Schmitt Tonight," the veteran strategist contrasted the two surveys and dismissed the wider Democrat advantage.

"McLaughlin is right, and Emerson is wrong," Morris said. "McLaughlin is always right. He's been right for years."

The Emerson poll released Thursday found Democrats leading Republicans 53% to 42% on the generic congressional ballot, with Trump's job approval at 39%.

The McLaughlin & Associates July survey put the Democratic edge at 46% to 44% and Trump's approval at 49%.

The Trump coalition, Morris argued, has hardened into a fixture.

"The Trump ratings are solid. They never change, no matter what happens," he said, calling the pattern unusual.

"I've never seen this in 50 years of polling," Morris said.

He noted the president won the 2024 popular vote with 49.8%.

"He won the election of ’24 with 49.8% of the vote. So it's enough," Morris said.

He said a 2-point generic-ballot deficit still translates to a Republican House majority because heavily Democrat urban districts inflate the party's national numbers without adding seats.

"I think he's going to win the midterms handily," Morris said.

He tied that forecast to the Supreme Court's April ruling that struck down a Black-majority congressional district and narrowed Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.

Morris predicted reapportionment flowing from that ruling would net Republicans about 20 additional seats.

Morris said Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, will win reelection and forecast Republican wins across the map.

He turned to the Aug. 4 primary in Michigan, saying a victory by progressive Abdul El-Sayed over Rep. Haley Stevens, D-Mich., would open the seat to Republicans.

"If El-Sayed wins that primary, I think we could pick up Michigan," Morris said.

Asked about Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., as a possible Democrat presidential contender in 2028, Morris said he expected the party to lurch left.

"When the Democrats lose an election, they move to the left," he said, citing George McGovern's nomination after Richard Nixon's victory and the nominations of Walter Mondale and Michael Dukakis after Ronald Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter.

"I wouldn't be surprised if AOC wins the Democratic primary."

The Emerson survey found Vice President JD Vance leading the field for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination with 39%, followed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 38%.

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