About a week into the US war against Iran, Donald Trump pledged that there would be no deal with Tehran except “unconditional surrender!”

More than 100 days later, the US president is hailing a deal that underlines not only the Islamic republic’s capacity to withstand American-Israeli bombing but its newfound leverage from severely disrupting energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

US officials say the agreement will not only reopen the strait but is also a pathway to finally dismantling Iran’s nuclear programme — one of Trump’s longstanding demands. But others say that while a deal to halt the war is welcome, it pushes key issues further down the road and exposes the dilemma Trump has been grappling with after more than 100 days of conflict.

“It’s a very weak deal for the US considering what the stated objectives were at the beginning,” said Dan Shapiro, a former senior US official. “It largely attempts to reopen the strait, which had definitely become the most important issue. But that just demonstrates how much leverage Iran had to persuade Trump that it was better to end this war even on weak terms than to continue it.”

Both sides ultimately wanted a deal. But Trump faced increasingly difficult options to get an agreement over the line having been encouraged to go to war by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, analysts say.

If the US escalated strikes as Trump had threatened, the Islamic regime — battered but not defeated — would retaliate against America’s allies in the Gulf and further exacerbate the energy crisis. If the status quo remained, the global economy would be hit harder.

“We were in a lose-lose dynamic, and if they had continued [with the war], the alternative would be just worse for both sides,” said Ali Vaez at International Crisis Group, a think-tank.

The memorandum of understanding agreed by the US and Iran will extend a fragile ceasefire, which was agreed on April 8, by 60 days. Iran will gradually reopen the strait while clearing mines, without charging fees for shipping for the duration of that period.

That will address one of Trump’s immediate concerns — easing the global energy crisis triggered by this war. Prices at US petrol pumps have climbed to above $4 a gallon, months before the president’s Republican Party faces midterm elections.

A diplomat briefed on the talks said that with the 60-day extension “both sides get something” as it extends the ceasefire, reopens the strait and lays the foundation for nuclear talks with less pressure on Iran. “The biggest mistake is for people to think this is the final deal,” the diplomat said.

The diplomat added that it was never going to be “total surrender, and the US understands that”.

“They think they can work with the government in place now. If you go for total surrender you empower the ultra-hardliners in Iran and that leads to a worse situation. This is a deal for long-term stability.”

Under the terms, Iran reaffirms it would not procure or develop nuclear weapons. Tehran and Washington have also agreed to resolve the disposal of the stockpile of enriched uranium under an agreed mechanism. The minimum commitment is for all uranium to be diluted on site, under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency, according to a person briefed on the talks.

Iran has a stockpile of more than 9,000kg of enriched uranium. Most of it is at low levels, but 440kg is enriched to near weapons-grade levels — which Trump describes as the nuclear dust.

The US president has repeatedly insisted Iran give up its “nuclear dust” but crunch negotiations on the nuclear programme will only begin in earnest once the MoU has been formally signed on Friday, and Iran is notorious for dragging out talks.

In a war with few coherent US objectives, one constant from Trump was his insistence that Iran would never have the capacity to develop nuclear weapons.

That is something it has always insisted was the case, citing a fatwa by the late supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, prohibiting the use of nuclear arms, even as it enriched uranium to near-weapons-grade levels.

Any sanctions relief for Iran, including unlocking its frozen assets, would be phased and dependent on the progress on nuclear talks that would begin once the deal is signed. But US will grant Iran a waiver to allow it to sell oil for the duration of the 60-day ceasefire extension, the person briefed on the talks said.

Securing an economic dividend will be critical to Tehran’s ability to begin repairing the huge damage wrought by US and Israeli bombs.

Iran has endured devastating blows over the past year — first in the 12-day Israeli war against the Islamic republic in June 2025, during which the US bombed its main nuclear sites, and again when Trump joined Netanyahu in launching the assault on February 28.

In the first salvo of the war, Israeli strikes killed Khamenei, who had led Iran for nearly four decades, as well as top defence officials and commanders. US and Israeli bombs have also degraded Iran’s missile and drone capacity and severely damaged steel and petrochemical plants that are key sources of non-oil export revenue.

But the regime has remained intact, with Khamenei’s son Mojtaba Khamenei taking over as supreme leader and the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which has spearheaded Iran’s military response, further empowered.

After years of threats, Tehran has proved its ability to close the Strait of Hormuz — through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and gas normally passes — and its capacity to strike with precision against Gulf states and US bases in the region.

That means that it would go into nuclear talks “with a lot of leverage on how to dispose of its highly enriched uranium and with the ability, as it always does, to drag those talks out,” said Shapiro, now a fellow at the Atlantic Council.

“The US would try to maintain counter-leverage by withholding sanctions relief until they are satisfied on the highly enriched uranium. But that will be a hard position to sustain.”

He adds that it would do so “without a very credible US military threat because the idea that 60 days from now, two or three months before the midterms, Trump is going to return to major military operations is not very credible”.

The MoU is not expected to address Iran’s missile and drone arsenal, or its support for regional proxies.

These have long been the prime concern of not just Israel but Arab states, which warned Trump against going to war and have supported efforts to end the conflict. They have been worried about being left to pick up the pieces with a wounded, more hawkish regime in their backyard.

Despite Trump’s claim at the outset of the war that the US was going to “obliterate” Iran’s “missile industry”, the Islamic republic continued to strike its neighbours.

Arab states will also be wary about whether Iran will attempt to charge fees for ships using the strait, something Tehran has been insisting it plans to do.

Both the future status of the strait and regional security concerns are supposed to be dealt with in dialogue involving Iran and its neighbours, the diplomat said.

Still, ICG’s Vaez said that without the regime making concessions, including on its nuclear programme, the agreement is not going to provide it with the significant relief it needs as it manages a deepening economic crisis, growing domestic pressures and the loss of much of its legitimacy at home.

“What this deal offers to Iran is really nothing more than a painkiller. It is not going to help them recover and engage in rebuilding after this conflict,” he said.

Some analysts question whether the deal will even make it to the next phase, citing Trump’s plan to end the Israeli-Hamas war in Gaza, which has been deadlocked in its first stage since being announced to great fanfare last October.

“Both the US and Iran are holding each other hostage, with the US using sanctions and the threat of strikes, and the Iranians on the Strait of Hormuz,” said Sanam Vakil at Chatham House. “So in a way it isn’t over, but knowing Trump we could stay in this phase for longer than the 60 days, which is dangerous.”

Experts say that without Trump’s backing, Israel, which has depended on US air defences, would be hard pressed to launch military operations against Iran. And Netanyahu, facing elections later this year, would be loath to have another public rupture with a US president.

“Israel would have preferred to continue with economic pressure on Iran, at the very least, but we don’t know if that would have even worked,” said Shira Efron, an Israel-based fellow at the Rand Corporation. “The assumption that Iran would capitulate to military pressure . . . has blown up in [Israel’s] face. It will be very difficult to spin this in Israel as a success.”

The deal also calls for an immediate and permanent end to the war on various fronts, including Lebanon, mediators said. But there is a risk the Israeli-Hizbollah conflict undermines the overall agreement with Iran, analysts warned.

Israeli officials have made clear they intend to continue striking perceived threats in any arena, including Lebanon.

Vaez said the US-Iran agreement would “stop the bleeding”. But he added: “It is not going to heal the wound.”