Donald Trump’s Iran war has driven US oil stocks to their lowest level in two decades as his administration drains stockpiles to contain surging prices and exporters capitalise on the drop in Middle Eastern supply.

US government data published on Wednesday showed total stocks of crude and petroleum products such as petrol fell by 10.6mn barrels last week to 1.57bn barrels — the lowest level since 2004.

The sharp fall triggered new warnings from industry analysts that oil prices are poised to move sharply higher again within weeks. The US oil price rose 2.6 per cent in afternoon trading on Wednesday to $96.17 a barrel.

Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former White House adviser, warned prices could reach $200 per barrel this summer unless the Strait of Hormuz — the crucial energy waterway in the Gulf closed by the war — was reopened to tanker traffic.

“You start to raise the risk of spillover into other sectors, the economy and financial system … it detonates fragilities in the broader economy and financial system,” McNally said.

The fall in US inventories since the war began has erased the build-up caused by the shale revolution, which made the country the world’s largest oil producer and a major exporter.

Last week’s drop was driven by a fall of 16mn barrels in commercial and government stocks of crude oil and rising exports to Asia and Europe, where traders have raced to replace lost Middle Eastern supplies.

US crude shipments jumped from 4.4mn barrels a day to 5.8mn b/d last week — more than many Opec countries produce — continuing a pattern of sharply higher exports since the war began, according to the Energy Information Administration.

The surge underscored the dire state of global oil supplies because of the near-total closure of the strait, the waterway between Iran and Oman through which a fifth of the world’s 100mn b/d or so of global oil supply flowed before the war.

“The US is acting like the lender of last resort for global oil markets, acting as a stabiliser and providing a buffer to offset Middle Eastern supply loss,” said Edward Hayden-Briffett, analyst at The Officials, a division of Onyx Capital Group.

But he warned the US’s ability to absorb the global oil shock was finite, pointing to increased releases from the nation’s strategic petroleum reserve — which was also tapped by Joe Biden’s administration to push down prices.

“As that buffer decreases, it becomes a stressor rather than a reassurance,” said Hayden-Briffett.

The US has released about 50mn barrels of crude from the SPR and has authorised the drawdown of 172mn to keep a lid on fast-rising crude and petrol prices.

Oil prices drifted lower in recent weeks as President Trump claimed he was close to a peace deal with Iran. But escalations in recent days have dimmed those hopes and the strait’s continued closure will push up prices again, analysts warned, as US and global inventories shrink further.

A new crude price surge would push up fuel prices during the peak US driving season, piling political pressure on Trump ahead of November’s midterm elections. US voters have soured on the president’s handling of the economy and inflation, according to a recent FT poll.

US petrol prices last week averaged $4.44 per gallon, according to the EIA, down modestly in recent weeks but up about 50 per cent since before the war. Trump predicts prices will fall sharply when the war ends.

Treasury secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday described the rise in US inflation caused by the war as “a short-term blip”.

Analysts said global traders competing for oil would continue to bid for US supplies to plug shortages caused by the war — putting more stress on American stockpiles.

Matt Smith, an analyst at Kpler, said: “The US is the supplier of last resort and is better positioned than pretty much every other country in the world given its large refining capacity and domestic production.”

“But what this means is US inventories are being drawn down to critically low levels . . . This means US prices must rise enough to slow exports and inventory drawdowns. When US exports slow, the music stops: buyers have very few other alternative suppliers to turn to.”