The Fed's interest rate decision and updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEPs) will be released on Wednesday 18th June at 2:00pm EDT, followed by Powell's Press Conference at 2:30pm EDT.

The FOMC will keep rates unchanged at 4.25-4.5%, as highlighted by the latest Reuters poll showing 103 out of 105 economists surveyed expecting this outcome, with the other 2 seeing a 25bps cut. Within the same poll, 59 of 105 economists forecast the Fed would resume rate cuts next quarter, likely in September, while 60% anticipate two cuts this year, consistent with the March median dot plot, and relatively in line with money market pricing, which discounts 46bps of easing by year-end.