CPI Preview: First 4%+ Print In Three Years

The May inflation print due at 8:30am on Wednesday - and which comes as the market is now fully pricing in a 25 basis point hike by the December meeting - has the potential to inflict some serious damage on the market not only if it prints hot to estimates (4.2% YoY for headline, 2.9% for core), but even if it comes in line with expectations - which would be the highest since July 2023 - in light of higher-than-expected NFP numbers last Friday, which may affirm an end to the Fed's easing cycle.