Myanmar dictator Min Aung Hlaing and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Photo courtesy of Xinhua

The military junta that overthrew Burma’s democratically elected government in 2021 has announced elections for December 28, 2025. Yet with nearly all pro-democracy and anti-junta parties banned, the outcome is already regarded by most of Burma’s population and international observers as predetermined.

Since July, the military has launched its most aggressive nationwide offensives since the war intensified, hoping to reclaim territory lost during 2023 and 2024 and project an illusion of control before the vote.

Plans released by the Union Election Commission (UEC) in mid-September excluded resistance-held townships from the list of areas deemed too insecure for voting, implying the junta expected to retake them before election day. Yet the junta was able to complete its census in only 145 of Burma’s 330 townships, leaving nearly 40 percent of the population uncounted.

That census, officially conducted to compile voter lists, was condemned by rights groups as a surveillance and counter-insurgency operation. Its 68 questions went far beyond what was necessary for voter registration, probing details such as relatives living abroad and languages spoken at home. The process was designed to intimidate citizens and expose supporters of the Civil Disobedience Movement, families of resistance fighters, and those receiving remittances through informal channels.

Digital-rights activists warned that the junta is also collecting biometric data, fingerprints, iris scans, and facial recognition, linked to citizenship records, passports, bank accounts, and SIM-card purchases. This expands the regime’s surveillance apparatus and allows closer scrutiny of ethnic minorities’ citizenship rights. Some census questions appeared tailored to advance ethnic assimilation, such as asking about the “mainly spoken language at home” rather than ethnicity, which observers see as an attempt to dilute non-Burman identity and identify populations deemed disloyal to the regime.

Because so much of the country remains outside regime control, the junta plans to stage elections in phases rather than on a single day. Voting is expected to occur across December and January under martial law and a state of emergency imposed in more than 60 townships where the military faces fierce resistance.

Since the 2021 coup, the Union Election Commission (UEC) has functioned as a tool of military rule rather than an independent election body. State media claim that 55 parties have registered, but nearly all major opposition groups, including the National League for Democracy (NLD), which won the last two elections, have been banned or excluded under the new Political Party Registration Law. The law favors the army-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), and with 25 percent of parliamentary seats reserved for the military, there is almost no mathematical path to victory for pro-democracy groups. Burma’s ethnic minorities, who together make up 30 to 40 percent of the population, will also be largely unrepresented.

China supports the elections because Beijing no longer believes the junta can defeat the resistance on the battlefield, and a sham vote may offer a path to stabilize the country under continued military rule.

Since the coup, China has hosted more than ten Myanmar political parties, with nearly half a dozen visits taking place in 2025 alone, mainly involving groups registered with the junta’s election commission. Delegates have been guided through China’s high-tech surveillance centers, such as the Guizhou Big Data Center, and taken to visit state-owned enterprises and political training schools.

China’s support for the junta’s 2025 elections risks reviving the army’s old “divide-and-rule” strategy, as Beijing seeks to stabilize Burma and position itself as the dominant power broker. India and Thailand have also expressed cautious approval, seeing even a flawed electoral process as preferable to continued chaos.

Pro-democracy resistance groups and ethnic armed organizations strongly oppose the military-staged election, viewing it as a tool to entrench illegitimate rule rather than a path to genuine transition. The National Unity Government (NUG) has called on the international community to denounce both the election and the census, warning that “the junta has the intention to carry out a sham election, and using the excuse of a census, they are collecting information from people which they will use to terrorize them.”

The consensus among observers is that the 2025 elections will neither be free nor fair but rather an attempt by the junta to manufacture legitimacy while maintaining authoritarian control, with China playing a crucial role in sustaining and legitimizing the process.

By excluding opposition parties and limiting voting to government-controlled areas, the junta has already stripped the election of integrity. Because it is in China’s interest for the generals to prevail, Beijing has offered to provide technical assistance for the vote, just as it did for the census. The results are therefore expected to be falsified. The junta has warned citizens against protesting the outcome, threatening long prison sentences for anyone who takes part in demonstrations.