Guest Post by Peter Reagan

There’s a whirlwind of suspicion swirling around the United States Bullion Depository (aka Fort Knox). Why haven’t our nation’s gold reserves been publicly verified and officially audited? Why the air of mystery? What are the Fed and the Treasury Department so determined to keep secret?

Your News to Know rounds up the most important stories about precious metals and the overall economy. This week, we’ll cover:

Why is Fort Knox at the center of a tornado of suspicion?

How to increase the federal government’s revenue by $750 billion with this one weird trick

Gold sets new records, tops $2,900 as $3,000 becomes the target in view

Chinese official gold reserve figures are utter nonsense!

Bonus: here’s how much gold China (unofficially) really has…

The Treasury, the Federal Reserve and Fort Knox at the center of a tornado of suspicion

We’ve separately covered both the widespread belief that Fort Knox has no gold and the idea of the U.S. Treasury revaluing its gold reserves to gain $750 billion.

But how these stories tie together is amazingly entertaining for any gold bug that is even slightly skeptical on money affairs from the official sector. Both President Trump and Elon Musk have expressed shock that a proper audit hasn’t been done for decades.

As this analysis points out, gold has never actually been fully audited in the U.S., with the 1953 and 1974 instances amounting to little more than a circus show.

Based on this alone, there is essentially no reason to believe we have the 8,100-ton gold reserve we claim we do besides the official sector’s say-so.

We’ve went over surveys in the past that showed the American populace overwhelmingly believes the U.S. doesn’t have the gold it claims, so we know how far that say-so goes.

The general idea is that the U.S. leased its gold somewhere, as with the Dutch Bank of Canada affair, with our ability to get it back being highly dubious.

But here comes the fun part. As Peter Redward explains:

“The longer answer is that the government is not like you and I. As gold is classified by the U.S. government as a commodity, not as a monetary instrument, the accounting rules are unclear and there is no mechanism for them to be required to maintain any mark-to-market (which is why we are where we are) and so if they endure a mark-to-market loss on their holdings, they simply don’t need to realize it.

So, there is no need for the U.S. Treasury to underwrite the gold market (i.e. talk of a new Gold Exchange Standard) by buying gold at that price. Nor is there any need for them to sell the physical asset, as they can simply mark the commodity to market and draw down the valuation change as a claim.”

Say what?

Yes, you read that correctly. We don’t need to sell our gold. A simple revaluation would essentially give the federal government a bonus $750 million on their balance sheet.

Now, that’s not a lot these days, considering how much we’re spending the nearly unimaginable mountain of debt we struggle under… On the other hand, that’s almost as much as the entire federal government’s revenue from both corporate income taxes ($530 billion) AND tariffs ($253 billion) last year. So it’s not exactly a figure we can afford to overlook, either.

The problem is simple. To claim that free $750 billion, a proper audit is required.

Despite his generally well-elaborated and thought-out analysis, Redward still suggests that the U.S. might be avoiding doing one for a simple reason – because the cost exceeds the benefit.

Really? The benefit is $750 billion. Manpower costs can’t realistically exceed $1 million and, you know what? I’d volunteer to help out for free. I mean, come on!

Obviously, there has to be another reason preventing our desperate-for-revenue government from claiming that $750 billion basically for free.

So what’s the real reason?

Personally, I really hope the gold is there – but as I’ve said many times in the past, hope is not a plan.

More on this story as it develops.

Gold shatters yet another all-time high, but who’s even surprised?

It is a thing to remark that an asset is moving so ferociously that ATHs are sort of taking second place in the headlines.

But so is true of gold in its current state. Having passed $2,920, many seem to simply not care about current levels.

Instead, the question is: can the price of gold exceed $3,000 soon, and what is the limit from there?

There has been a clear acceleration in price appreciation. For many forecasters, $3,000 in 2025 was initially a “by year’s end” price target. But in less than two months to the year, we’ve moved to forecasts above and beyond of $3,000.

A far wider range of big names feels comfortable projecting gold to $3,000 relatively soon, including Goldman Sachs, ING and Moody’s.

Goldman Sachs actually upped their forecast to $3,100 for this year from the previous $2,890 – not a small change!

As you might remember, UBS was initially the only big bank targeting a $3,000 gold price.

We’re also seeing a renewed number of forecast towards the $4,000 target, along with expectations that the run might continue into 2026 and onwards.

But we don’t want to go so far just yet.

Instead, let’s focus on two curiosities in the gold market, which are somewhat related.

The first is that, in what has become yet another installment in the ongoing Why is gold going up? conversation (episode 568?), the latest explanation is that Trump’s proposed tariffs are driving gold’s price.

But wait, when President Trump was re-elected, remember that gold’s price declined – right? Come on, mainstream media, get your stories straight! It’s not as though the tariff proposals came out of nowhere. Tariffs, both punitive and protectionary, were central to the first Trump administration. He discussed his tariff plans extensively throughout his campaign!

We cannot pretend tariffs were a surprise. Therefore it’s completely nonsensical to say Trump’s election sent gold price down before sending gold price up.

Here’s my take…

A massive wave of strong fundamentals, spearheaded by a structurally weak U.S. dollar, unsolvable debt, unsolvable deficit, hidden inflation and under-reported consumer price increases – these are the forces driving gold’s price higher. Just as they always have.

In other words, this time is NOT different.

This brings us to the second notable piece of news. Swiss exports of gold bullion to the U.S. reached the highest figure in 13 years. Since 2011, the year when economic headlines were all about the failure of the economy to recover from the Great Financial Crisis despite massive deficit spending, multi-trillion-dollar bailouts and unprecedented money-printing by Ben Bernanke’s Federal Reserve.

2011 was a year of dread – when we first saw that the entire federal government was helpless to electroshock the economy out of its moribund state.

Regardless, the official narrative is that gold is being brought in because markets are worried Trump is going to impose tariffs any minute now. This is a completely bizarre theory, considering that U.S. annual gold production is sufficient to meet current domestic demand.

Let me say that again: U.S. domestic gold production is sufficient to meet current domestic demand.

With that in mind, there are only two reasons I can think of for megabanks to fly billions of dollars in gold bullion into the U.S.

They anticipate a huge surge in domestic demand

They’ve been caught in a short squeeze and are taking unprecedented steps to deliver

Interesting times… It’s widely accepted that gold (and much more so silver) is among the most overleveraged commodities traded. That can give way to price manipulation and suppression.

I think it’s likely we’re seeing some big market-makers trying to close out massive short positions. So long as the mainstream media points the outraged, trembling finger at Trump’s tariffs, the megabanks have the cover they need.

It’s official: China is unofficially stockpiling gold, but how much?

Some of our really old readers, or seasoned gold investors, might recall that doubters of China’s official gold figure placed it around double the officially-reported total a decade ago.

From just over 2,000 tons to slightly above 4,000 tons.

How far we’ve come since then! These days, we have detailed analyses on how and why China might be holding over 30,000 tons of gold.

Jan Nieuwenhuijs is the go-to analyst for these numbers – I strongly recommend following his newsletter. Here’s one of his older charts just to give you an idea of the scale we’re discussing right now:

via The Gold Observer

This remains one of the most under-the-radar stories in the gold market, despite the fair bit of coverage it’s received.

We find ourselves in a time where sovereign nations are re-establishing the old adage of he or she with the most gold holds the keys to the kingdom.

This is happening during a time when our own supposed 8,100 ton gold hoard seems to be missing, and right around the time of talks of re-introducing some kind of gold standard globally.

It’s easy to see how the world is not well-positioned to learn far too late that China is sitting on more than 30,000 tons of gold bullion while European nations are fortunate to claim a 1,000-ton figure.

Using transaction data from the London Bullion Market’s over-the-counter desk, this report shows us that things are not as they seem when it comes to Chinese gold. (Surprise.)

The report highlights how from May 2022 to June 2023, U.K. monthly exports of gold to China would sometimes exceed 70 tons while we were being told China is buying one, two or even no tons of gold.

Those who have read the 30,000 ton analyses know that this figure will have been achieved by merging China’s supposed private sector with the official one.

We know that the line barely exists, and because of it, China is free to accumulate heaps of gold while claiming that its central bank is buying none.

The analysis has a few more interesting points, but this is the big one:

“In October 2024, Chinese gold prices were consistently lower than those in London, creating a price differential that would normally discourage imports of higher-priced Gold from London to China, especially as gold is traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) for liquidity.

U.K. data shows continued Gold export to China, suggesting that the buyer was likely the PBOC. As a central bank, the PBOC is less concerned with short-term price differences and more focused on long-term accumulation of gold for its reserves.”

Who but central banks can afford to buy gold near all-time-high prices on top of record-high premiums by the ton? Indeed, the whole “loss buying” doesn’t make sense until we answer this question.

China’s central bank cares little about either gold price or premiums, and appears to have been adding to its already enormous gold hoard in staggering quantities… While, at the same time, publishing an official press release announcing yet another modest purchase.

When their actions and words don’t line up, watch what they DO. That’s what they’re hoping you’ll overlook.

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