Since April, Lawler has sued to knock a longshot Democratic candidate off the primary ballot, sent covert text blasts to sow discord and, according to one person who spoke with POLITICO, tried to play a direct hand in a coveted primary endorsement.

If Lawler’s past actions are any indication, Conley’s win is bad news for him. Tuesday’s result means Lawler’s efforts to meddle in the primary and sink Conley have fallen flat, and the disputed attack his team tried to amplify about her — that she’s somehow linked to Trump’s deportation agenda — will likely prove less salient outside of the closed Democratic primary.

Complicating things further for the Republican are developments that have Democrats feeling optimistic about flipping his seat. Earlier this year, the Cook Political Report changed its ranking of his district from “Lean-R” to “Toss-up.” The left-leaning publication The Argument ranked Lawler as the most vulnerable House member in a non-redistricted seat. And there are about 80,000 more registered Democrats in the district than Republicans.

“Cait Conley is everything Lawler is not: a decorated combat veteran who has spent her life serving others,” DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene said in a statement after AP called the race for Conley. “The Hudson Valley is ready to trade a media-obsessed Trump rubberstamp for a fighter they can finally trust.”

Since his election in 2022, Lawler has focused on casting himself as a moderate who will gladly reach across the aisle. He frequently touts his ranking on the Lugar Center’s list of the most bipartisan members of Congress, is quick to criticize the extremist rhetoric from the far-right of his party and worked with Democrats to pass immigration protections for Haitians earlier this year. Just last year, Lawler was openly considering a run for governor.

With exorbitant advertising costs in the New York media market, which encompasses the entire district, the GOP is encouraged by Lawler’s fundraising prowess. He has already raised about $7.5 million — more than Conley and Davidson combined — and Conley has already spent much of her cash in a bruising primary.

“While Democrats show with their woke, tax-and-spend agenda that they’re wildly out of touch with voters, Mike Lawler is a proven fighter and winner for Hudson Valley families,” National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Maureen O’Toole said in a statement. “From lowering taxes to securing the border and making communities safer, Lawler always puts his constituents first, and they’ll trust him with their vote again this November.”

Looming large for Lawler in the race will be Trump, who is widely unpopular in New York, but saw his numbers improve in Lawler’s district in the last presidential election — even if voters sided with Kamala Harris by a hair. Democrats have already shown they are keen on tying Lawler to Trump, whom Lawler invited to the district last month. At least publicly, Lawler said he does not see Trump as a liability for him.

“Democrats control everything in New York, just like they control everything in California, and there is significant blowback to the policies of Kathy Hochul, of Zohran Mamdani,” Lawler said last month on the “2WAY” podcast, ahead of Trump’s visit. “There’s a reason I’ve won three times now in 2-to-1 Democratic districts. They don’t vote the way that it may look on paper.”

In the interview, Lawler predicted about $60 million will be spent on his race when the dust is settled.

Battleground New York, a left-leaning group that aims to flip GOP seats by engaging disaffected voters, said it’s going to be spending its resources going door-to-door to speak with residents about the effect of cuts to Medicaid enacted by Republicans.

“In a district like Mike Lawler’s, the wave of dissatisfaction with President Trump, his association with President Trump, those things are going to take him out,” Grossman said, referencing Democratic wins last year in gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, and a Wisconsin Supreme Court victory for the party this year. “It’s the marquee race, in part because it’s in the New York media market, in part because Mike Lawler is a good politician, good at what he does. But at the same time, he’s the perfect example of a Republican who has given over all of his agency to Donald Trump.”

Conley’s bid was supported by the chair of the Westchester County Democratic Committee and more than a half-dozen local Democratic groups in that suburban county, despite moving to the county and congressional district last year, only months before announcing her run. She grew up in neighboring Congressional districts before joining the military. Conley also found support from out-of-state donors and national political organizations like Majority Democrats and VoteVets.

“Protecting what makes this country great is why I’m running now,” Conley said in her campaign launch video. “Because the politicians who created this mess are not going to be the ones who fix it.”

As the chair of the Rockland County GOP, Lawler will be able to rely on his extensive political operation and allies in the district to fend off Conley’s challenge. He has also enjoyed support from local Orthodox Jewish communities, which vote in large numbers in the district, often as a bloc.

Davidson, a Rockland County legislator, had hoped her deep roots as a local representative and Democratic consultant would be enough to push her over the finish line. But as polls showed Conley increasingly ahead of Davidson, the Rockland lawmaker quickly went negative by attacking Conley’s post-military work experience.

Davidson argued in ads and debates that Conley’s work for defense technology firms established a clear link between Conley and Trump’s deportation agenda. One of the companies Conley still works for, Primer AI, says on its website that it works to “support DHS missions,” which Davidson said connects Conley to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, an agency within the Department of Homeland Security.

Conley spent much of the final weeks of her campaign battling that accusation — including in a paid ad that referenced the attack — and the critique was also amplified by Lawler as he tried to put his thumb on the scale to influence the outcome of the Democratic primary.

“When I see Mike Lawler and MAGA Republicans lying about me, I know they’re scared,” Conley said in a recent ad. “MAGA knows I will beat Mike Lawler and stop Donald Trump.”