Maine Democrat Senate candidate Graham Platner's apparent polling advantage over incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins might be far weaker than public surveys suggest, polling expert Patrick Allocco told Newsmax on Monday.
Allocco, founder of the Zoose Political Index, told "Finnerty" that Platner's own internal polling shows a much tighter race than recent public polling averages indicate.
RealClearPolitics' polling average shows Platner leading Collins by 7.4 percentage points, 48.7% to 41.3%, ahead of Tuesday's Democratic primary. But Allocco said a recently released internal survey from Platner's campaign paints a different picture.
"Platner's own internals last week had him up 4 points, and internals are always inflated toward the candidate releasing them," Allocco said.
"So with a nearly 4% margin of error, he's not sitting on a lead. He's effectively underwater."
The internal poll, conducted by Public Policy Polling and reported by the New York Post, showed Platner leading Collins 49% to 45%, a margin that Allocco said should concern Democrats given Collins' history of outperforming surveys.
"At this point, a Democrat needs to be up 12 to 15 points to survive Collins," Allocco said, noting "her late-breaking independent support, her proven history of outperforming the polls."
"Instead, Platner's negatives are rising. And that's why this race is going nowhere fast for him," he said.
Collins, a five-term senator first elected in 1996, won reelection in 2020 despite trailing in virtually every major public poll leading up to Election Day. Analysts have frequently cited her strong appeal among independent voters as a key factor in her electoral success.
Platner, a Marine veteran and oyster farmer who is expected to secure the Democrat nomination Tuesday, has faced scrutiny in recent weeks over a series of controversies, including allegations involving sexually explicit text messages, past online posts, and a tattoo linked to Nazi imagery. He has apologized for some past conduct and denied other allegations.
Allocco also said Democrats risk appearing inconsistent in their handling of allegations against political figures.
"Platner's base — no matter what — will look the other way," he said. "But independents in Maine and voters across the country can see what's happening."
Allocco drew a contrast between Democrats' response to allegations against Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh during his confirmation hearings and their defense of Platner.
"Democrats demanded one standard for Kavanaugh. Now, they want another standard for Graham Platner," he said.
"That contradiction matters because it reminds voters that for Democrats character only counts when the accused is a Republican."
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