Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg are the early front-runners for the 2028 Democrat presidential nomination in New Hampshire, while Vice President JD Vance continues to lead the Republican field despite a surge by Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Among likely Democrat primary voters, 22% said they would support Ocasio-Cortez if the primary were held today, narrowly ahead of Buttigieg at 21%.

Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., placed third at 9%, followed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom at 8%; Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., at 6%; and former Vice President Kamala Harris at 5%. No other prospective candidate received more than 2% support.

The Granite State poll found Ocasio-Cortez has gained 7 percentage points since February, while support for Newsom dropped 7 percentage points and Harris fell 5 percentage points.

Ocasio-Cortez drew her strongest backing from self-described socialists and progressives, while Buttigieg's support was spread more evenly among progressives, liberals, and moderates.

Ocasio-Cortez also posted the strongest favorability ratings among likely Democrat primary voters, with 64% holding a favorable opinion of her and 9% an unfavorable one. Buttigieg followed closely, with 69% favorable and 15% unfavorable ratings.

On the Republican side, Vance remained the preferred candidate among likely GOP primary voters with 36% support, while Rubio climbed to 26%, an increase of 19 percentage points since February.

Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., and former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley each received 8%, followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 6% and former Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard at 4%.

Although Vance's lead has narrowed since his support declined 17 percentage points since February, he remained especially strong among conservatives, who backed him by a 49%-29% margin over Rubio.

Rubio performed best among moderates and libertarians.

The survey also showed Trump continues to wield significant influence among Republican voters.

Two-thirds of likely Republican primary voters said they want the party's 2028 nominee to build on Trump's presidency, while 28% preferred a different direction.

At the same time, 43% said a Trump endorsement would make them more likely to support a Republican candidate, while another 43% said it would have little or no effect. Thirteen percent said such an endorsement would make them less likely to back a candidate.

The survey of 1,458 New Hampshire adults was conducted July 15-20. The overall margin of sampling error was plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.

Among likely Democrat primary voters, the margin of error was plus or minus 3.8 percentage points, while the Republican primary sample had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.