Newsmax contributors Robert Wilkie and Robert Pape warned Saturday that Iran remains capable of escalating tensions despite recent U.S. military operations, arguing that the conflict is entering a new phase rather than ending.
Appearing on Newsmax's "America Right Now," former Veterans Affairs Secretary Robert Wilkie said the Iranian regime "was on the run" after U.S. and Israeli strikes, with its leadership "decimated," but cautioned that Tehran "is designed to survive many levels of kinetic attacks."
"They disperse their forces. They disperse their commands," Wilkie said.
"They are attempting to drag out these negotiations as long as they can. But they're also trying to show the world that they have not been beaten."
University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape argued that "Iran survived, and that has changed everything."
"I think the conventional wisdom is wrong," Pape said.
"This war is not ending. This war is transitioning."
He said competing claims to regional dominance by Iran, the United States and Israel have "created the incentives for renewed escalation."
Discussing nuclear negotiations, Wilkie expressed skepticism that Tehran would accept meaningful inspections.
"The only way this happens is if officers of the United States Air Force, United States Navy, and civilian nuclear experts are allowed anytime, anywhere inspections," he said.
"The regime has never indicated that they would ever allow this."
Asked about Vice President JD Vance's assertion that "America wins either way" with or without a nuclear agreement, Pape cautioned against focusing solely on military gains.
"It's not just about winning militarily," he said.
"The real danger is we're heading into an economic crisis," citing declining oil inventories and Iran's ability to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
"I have a simple scorecard," Pape added.
"Who controls Hormuz? Who controls the red lines? And who controls escalation? You answer those three questions, you're going to be able to track where this thing is heading."
Wilkie also welcomed a U.S.-brokered framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon as "certainly a first step," while warning that the Lebanese military remains too weak to fully displace Hezbollah without additional international support.
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