Republicans are divided over whether President Donald Trump’s Iran agreement and slowly falling energy prices can improve the GOP’s fortunes ahead of the midterms, with some seeing a potential political boost and others warning that voters’ economic concerns are already entrenched.
One national Republican operative said there was a sense of “relief” within the party following the agreement, pointing to falling oil and gas prices and positive market reactions.
“I think it’s a really good sign as we head into campaign season, and Republicans are desperately looking for a positive message on this,” the operative told The Hill on Saturday.
The Trump administration has aggressively promoted the deal’s economic benefits.
Vice President JD Vance said “the peace plan in Iran is already bearing real fruits for the American people,” while Trump touted that “the stock market just hit a new all-time high” and that “oil is dropping like a rock.”
Supporters argue the agreement could eventually turn a political liability into an asset.
Conservative economist Stephen Moore said that “if the Iranians stick to the deal, then by the November elections, Trump could be seen as a hero for disarming the Iranian regime and bringing gas prices back down again.”
But many Republicans remain unconvinced that lower gas prices can reverse broader voter dissatisfaction with the economy.
One Republican close to the White House told Politico this week, “Economically, I don’t think there’s time. I think it’s too late, essentially, to really change a voter’s mood.”
The source added that affordability concerns predated the conflict and that “merely returning to the status quo isn’t enough.”
Another Republican strategist argued that the fuel-price spike was “something that was self-inflicted and only brought about by this conflict in the first place,” adding that “the real danger for Republicans was that gas prices were just a new, more visible way of expressing what was already on the minds of voters.”
The agreement has also sparked criticism from within the GOP.
Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Roger Wicker, R-Miss., said he was “concerned” the deal could undo gains made during the military campaign, while Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, said Trump was receiving “poor advice.”
Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., a vocal Trump critic within the party, went even further, saying former President Ronald Reagan is “rolling over in his grave.”
Democrats argue that any decline in gas prices will not erase months of economic pain.
Democratic pollster John Anzalone said, “Voters don’t just forget about the months and months of high gas prices that added to their pain,” adding that “there’s plenty of PTSD.”
Democratic strategist Adrienne Elrod similarly argued that “the damage caused by Trump’s self-inflicted war has already been done.”
For now, Republicans agree on little beyond the uncertainty.
Some believe the end of the conflict and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz provide a much-needed positive message heading into November.
Others fear that voter perceptions of the economy are already set, leaving the party with limited time to convince Americans that conditions are improving.