President Donald Trump is likely to continue military operations against Iran through the 2026 midterm elections because of both battlefield realities and domestic political pressures, University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape said Sunday.
Appearing on Newsmax's "Sunday Agenda," Pape said the conflict has become what he described as an "escalation trap," making it difficult for Trump to significantly alter course despite the war's declining public support.
"There's no getting around the fact that this is an unpopular war," he said. "All the opinion polls, pretty much from the beginning, 145 days ago when the war began, showed that a majority of the public did not support the war."
At the same time, Pape said Trump's political base continues to back the military campaign.
"A majority of MAGA, that is President Trump's key political base, does support the war," he said. "President Trump needs to be a hero in their eyes. That is how he has earned their trust, earned their faith, and earned their votes."
Pape said the recent pause in U.S. strikes should not be interpreted as a sign that the conflict is winding down.
"I don't think it's an end to the war," he said.
Instead, Pape suggested the pause reflects military considerations, including concerns about interceptor missile supplies needed to defend against Iranian retaliation.
"We're going to reorient an air campaign to go and pound again the missile sites, especially the ballistic missile sites," he said.
Pape noted that Iran still possesses a substantial ballistic missile arsenal housed in underground facilities.
"Iran has somewhere between 1,000 and 1,500 ballistic missiles, and these are underground," he said.
He predicted another phase of operations targeting missile infrastructure could last "days, possibly several weeks," depending on operational requirements.
"We're seeing a longer war, not a shorter war," Pape said.
Responding to recent comments by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Iran must either abandon its nuclear program or see its regime sufficiently weakened, Pape said such objectives point toward an extended conflict.
"What Netanyahu is talking about is certainly a forever war," he said. "That is the very definition of a forever war in this case because Iran is just so big."
Pape said the administration's optimistic rhetoric has become increasingly difficult to reconcile with realities on the ground.
"The victory rhetoric doesn't match escalation reality," he said. "It is out of sync."
While Pape stopped short of predicting a yearslong conflict, he said meaningful policy changes are unlikely before the political landscape shifts after the midterm elections.
"I think it will actually be after the midterms," he said. "Between now and January, this is not going to be over."
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