The massive funeral ceremonies held over the July 4 weekend for Iran's late supreme leader could mark a turning point in the conflict between Tehran, the United States, and Israel, according to University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape, who argues the war has entered a dangerous pause rather than a path toward lasting peace.

Speaking on the At the Water's Edge podcast and elaborating on his analysis in his Substack newsletter, The Escalation Trap, Pape contended that the millions who took to the streets this week to attend the funeral demonstrate growing nationalist resolve.

Such resolve, Pape predicts, will strengthen Iran's negotiating position and make further escalation more likely later this summer.

"The balance of military capabilities did not change over the weekend," Pape said. "The balance of political will shifted."

Pape is widely known for his research on coercive military strategy and air power and his comments come as diplomats prepare for another round of U.S.-Iran discussions expected later this week amid a fragile pause in major fighting.

Unlike many analysts who view the lull in combat as an opportunity for diplomacy, Pape believes the underlying strategic pressures continue to build.

"The pause appears to be another stage in the escalation process rather than the beginning of de-escalation," he wrote in his latest forecast.

Central to Pape's argument is his contention that extensive wartime losses may strengthen, rather than weaken, public support for Iran's leadership.

Drawing comparisons to the surge in American unity following the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, he argued that large-scale trauma often produces demands for retaliation instead of compromise.

During the podcast, Pape said the funeral crowds represented a visible expression of nationalist sentiment rather than merely a government-organized political spectacle.

While images showed enormous crowds in Tehran and other cities, analysts differ over what those demonstrations reveal about broader public sentiment.

Pape also maintained that Iran's leverage could increase significantly in August as global oil inventories tighten and the Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint for world energy supplies.

For months, he has argued that Tehran's greatest bargaining strength would emerge later this summer as shrinking petroleum reserves leave energy markets increasingly vulnerable to disruptions.

"What changed this weekend is not the economic timeline," he wrote. "It is Tehran's political confidence."

According to Pape, Iran may respond by hardening its negotiating demands, potentially extending beyond nuclear issues to include broader questions about the American military presence in the Persian Gulf.

Among the indicators he says observers should watch are whether Tehran begins explicitly linking commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to broader regional security demands, whether insurance costs and shipping traffic remain disrupted, and whether tensions involving Hezbollah in Lebanon intensify again.

Pape also believes August could become a decisive month because, in his view, both Washington and Tehran may conclude that delaying action risks allowing the other side to gain additional leverage.

Not all analysts share that assessment.

Other regional specialists argue that diplomatic negotiations, domestic economic pressures inside Iran, and military deterrence could still limit escalation.

But Pape says Lebanon will likely become the next major pressure point.

He argues that Hezbollah and Lebanon remain central to Iran's regional strategy and that renewed fighting there would signal the conflict is entering another phase rather than winding down.

Pape thinks Israel has a strong incentive to weaken Iran's regional position before Iran reaches what he calls its period of "maximum leverage" in August.

As a result, he believes additional Israeli operations against Hezbollah or other Iranian-aligned forces in Lebanon are more likely.

"If pressure on Hezbollah intensifies or fighting expands again, it will signal that Washington and Jerusalem are attempting to weaken Iran's regional position before Tehran reaches its period of maximum leverage in August," Pape wrote.

For now, Pape says the key question is no longer simply whether negotiations resume but whether both sides can prevent growing political momentum from overtaking diplomacy.

"The next two to three weeks may determine whether August brings elevated energy prices — or a genuine global economic shock," he wrote, adding that the coming weeks should be judged less by public statements than by developments in negotiations, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and regional military activity.