The United States has warned Poland that Russia could be preparing a military provocation aimed at testing NATO's resolve and weakening Western support for Ukraine, The Telegraph reported, citing the Polish outlet Onet.

The reported scenarios include drone or missile strikes on critical infrastructure or a limited cross-border incursion by Russian or Belarusian troops designed to trigger a political crisis without escalating into full-scale war.

According to The Telegraph, Washington has repeatedly shared intelligence with Warsaw about potential Russian plans involving NATO's eastern flank.

One Onet source close to Polish President Karol Nawrocki said the United States "systematically informs Poland about ever-new Russian plans for a conventional attack on NATO's eastern flank, from which Poland is by no means excluded."

The report said Russia's objective would be to create tensions inside the alliance while pressuring Western nations to suspend military aid to Ukraine.

Possible scenarios include drone strikes on power stations, simulated air attacks that force Poland to activate its air defenses, or a "hybrid attack in the border region."

The same intelligence source said an armed incursion involving Russian or Belarusian troops was also possible. Moscow could later portray such an operation as an accidental border crossing caused by GPS failure or as a rescue mission involving a disabled helicopter.

Polish sources reportedly told Onet that Russia could be counting on Poland to negotiate rather than respond militarily, allowing Moscow to claim a strategic victory if its forces withdrew through diplomacy rather than military force. According to the report, Russia could even demand an end to Western support for Ukraine as part of such negotiations.

A second source described as an ambassador to one of Poland's NATO allies, a third source in Poland's Defense Ministry, and a Baltic security official all reportedly agreed that the threat of a Russian provocation against Poland or another Baltic state is serious.

The Baltic source also told The Telegraph that such plans have been discussed in Moscow and that Russia could later attempt to blame Ukraine.

Officials said any ground incursion would most likely originate from Russia's Kaliningrad exclave or neighboring Belarus, a close Kremlin ally.

A member of Poland's Defense Ministry leadership confirmed to Onet that the possibility of a Russian provocation exists, but said Poland has already conducted military exercises intended to warn Moscow that any attack would bring a devastating NATO response.

The Telegraph also reported that recent U.S.-led naval exercises in Latvia were intended to reinforce deterrence by reminding Moscow that any attack on NATO's eastern flank would effectively involve American forces.

Last month, German Air Force chief Holger Neumann told The Telegraph that Germany would defend "every inch" of NATO territory if required.