Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, holds a narrow lead over state Rep. James Talarico, a Democrat, in two surveys released this week, as Republican voters appear to be coalescing behind Paxton after a bruising primary that ended four-term Sen. John Cornyn's Senate career.

The University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll, released Tuesday, put Paxton at 43% and Talarico at 42%, with Libertarian Ted Brown at 3% and 10% undecided.

A separate survey from SoCal Strategies, sponsored by the conservative outlet Red Eagle Politics, showed Paxton ahead 49% to 47%, with 4% undecided.

The result marks a significant shift from the same pollster's April survey, when Talarico led Paxton 42% to 34%.

Paxton's 9-point gain tracks an even larger move within his own party: Republican support for Paxton rose from 63% in April to 84% in June, while Talarico's GOP share fell to 5%.

Talarico, who has built his general-election bid around peeling off traditional Republicans and independents, continues to lead independents 40% to 12%, with about one-third of that group still undecided.

The SoCal Strategies poll points to the same dynamic by a different route.

Talarico carried independents by 10 points and captured 25% of voters who backed Cornyn in the May runoff, but Republicans posted a slightly higher undecided share than Democrats, 4% to 1%, leaving Paxton more room to consolidate.

The same survey found Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican, leading state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, a Democrat, 54% to 42% in the gubernatorial contest, a wider margin than the UT poll's 47% to 40%.

Paxton won the May 26 runoff after President Donald Trump endorsed him over Cornyn, who has served in the Senate since 2003. Trump has described Talarico as the worst Texas candidate he has ever seen.

Cook Political Report rates the seat Lean Republican.

Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, but Republicans worry that Paxton's record, including a 2023 impeachment by the Texas House that ended in acquittal by the state Senate, could keep the race tighter than recent cycles.